El Nino more predictable than first thought!

[Typhoon_Willie]

Here is the yahoo news server article on the subject...


El Nino More Predictable Than Thought
Wed Apr 14, 1:05 PM ET



By ALEX DOMINGUEZ, Associated Press Writer

El Nino, the periodic warming in the equatorial Pacific that can change weather worldwide, is more predictable than previously thought, researchers report.




While some forecasting methods had limited success predicting the 1997 El Nino a few months in advance, the Columbia University researchers say their method can predict large El Nino events up to two years in advance.

That would be a boon for governments, farmers and others seeking to plan for the droughts and heavy rainfall El Nino can produce in various parts of the world.

Using a computer, the researchers matched sea-surface temperatures to later El Nino occurrences between 1980 and 2000 and were then able to anticipate El Nino events dating back to 1857, using prior sea-surface temperatures.

The results were reported in Thursday's issue of the journal Nature.

The researchers say their method is not perfect, but Bryan C. Weare, a meteorologist at the University of California, Davis, who was not involved in the work, said it "suggests El Nino is indeed predictable."

"This will probably convince others to search around more for even better methods," said Weare.

The new method "makes it possible to predict El Nino at long lead times," said lead author Dake Chen of Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory.

Other models also use sea-surface temperatures, but they have not looked as far back because they need other data, which is only available for recent decades, Chen said.

The ability to predict the warming and cooling of the Pacific is of immense importance.

The 1997 El Nino, for example, caused an estimated $20 billion in damage worldwide, offset by beneficial effects in other areas, said David Anderson, of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in Reading, England. The 1877 El Nino, meanwhile, coincided with a failure of the Indian monsoon and a famine that killed perhaps 40 million in India and China, prompting the development of seasonal forecasting, Anderson said.

When El Nino hit in 1991 and 1997, 200 million people were affected by flooding in China alone, according to a 2002 United Nations (news - web sites) report.

While predicting smaller El Nino events remains tricky, the ability to predict larger ones should be increased to at least a year if the new method is confirmed, Anderson wrote in an accompanying commentary.

El Nino tends to develop between April and June and reaches its peak between December and February. The warming tends to last between 9 and 12 months and occurs every two to seven years.

Chen said the new forecasting method does not predict any major El Nino events in the next two years, although a weak warming toward the end of this year is possible.


Interesting stuff indeed!

[cycloneye]

Interesting information there Willie about the methods to predict if el nino appears or not thanks for sharing it with the storm2k members.

[Guest]

Cool Beans

[Typhoon_Willie]

Thanks guys! I thought you would be interested in the article.

[mf_dolphin]

It will be very interesting to see how their forecasts verify over the next few years. I imagine that the insurance companies will be paying close attention.

[MWatkins]

Hey Willie...thanks for the article.

Hmmm...sounds like a climatology and persistance model for Ninos. What I find most interesting is that they refer to the 1997 event as predictable (by the way...one of the most significant nino events on record) they do nothing to address what the model forecasts for this season (I betcha the model stinks for borerline cases). In fact:

Columbia University researchers say their method can predict large El Nino events up to two years in advance.

I would be willing to bet that the same suite of dynamic models in operation today would do just as well...if not better...on the 97 event. We are now 7 years further advanced in modeling and computer science (I was on a 28.8 modem then and though it was fast).

Come on Columbia guys...stick your neck out a bit...when is the next big nino coming? Or...at least load the environmental parameters into the dynamic models and run a test case prediction against the climo model you've created!

I betcha betcha betcha the dynamic models win.

MW