Busy 2004 Hurricane for Texas and Florida

[KatDaddy]

Listed below is a few links to the Weather Research Center in Houston which has quite a track record. Sure they are not 100% but have had many verifications over the years. I have followed there forecasts since the 80s.

Remember it has been 21 years since a major hurricane (Hurricane Alicia) made landfall along the Upper Texas Coast.

The phrase for the upcoming 2004 hurricane season is "really be prepared this year". Many people talk about being prepared. I was not as prepared as I should have been last year. Claudette was a wake-up call with its rapid intensification.

http://www.wxresearch.com/outlook/

http://www.wxresearch.com/outlook/hur2004.htm

http://www.wxresearch.com/outlook/hurend2003.htm

Other links for viewing:

http://www.wxresearch.com/outlook/claud2003.htm

http://www.wxresearch.com/outlook/fcst.htm

[vbhoutex]

Very interesting reading and a little scary for us Texans!!! Thanks for the links KD!!!

I believe they were at the Hurricane conference last year. Maybe we can ask them face to face this year about their predictions. and you are right about their verification record too. I just saw something about that the other day, but I can't tell you where it was.

[Steve H.]

Seems their numbers are a bit low (7/4/2), but if one major landfalls (never mind 3) it would be worse than the seasons with 15 storms, one cat 2 landfall

[PTrackerLA]

One of those links says Louisiana-Florida has a 40%-59% chance this year, third behind Texas. Statistically speaking, Louisiana isn't due for a hurricane for another 2 years or so (Lili 2002) but we all know that really means nothing. Can't wait to start tracking these canes, the weather is so boring right now, but it's also really nice .

[wxman57]

What a load of cra%@! Last year they predicted a 73% chance that the Gulf of Mexico would be affected by a hurricane, as if that was above normal. Well, that's below normal. They also predicted a below-average number of storms last year based on some goofy sunspot cycle theory. In fact, they were 9 too low in 2003 and 6 too low in 2002, 2001, and 2000. Dr. Gray and Chris Landsea have looked at their methods and found absolutely no correlation to the "OCSI" and hurricane activity.

Ask them to define "affect" for you. Very vague. If cirrus outflow from a storm touches a state then it was affected. Believe them at your own risk. They remind me of reading the Farmer's Almanac (or a horoscope in the paper). You can read just about anything you want in their forecasts. With any luck (and a little help), they'll be closing up shop within the next year.

And don't ask me what I REALLY think about them here. Do it in private.

[Guest]

Ask them to define "affect" for you. Very vague. If cirrus outflow from a storm touches a state then it was affected. Believe them at your own risk.

LOL,if thats getting affected I get "affected" every season.