Here's a question to ponder!!!

[Guest]

With the first known tropical cyclone in the south atlantic, the question is.
How will this affect the 2004 Hurricane Season for the North Atlantic? Is this a precursor of whats to come? Are we watching history in the making, and don't relize what the coming 2004 atlantic hurricane season is about to become?
Just a question to ponder!!! Evdently, the winds must be favorable, as well as water temps, air temps, ect. This just doesn't happen, and is this an indication of the coming season for us?
I'll post a reply soon!!

[cycloneye]

Interesting question that you ask Bob and we will know sooner rather than later what impact if any this development will have on the north atlantic hurricane season.

[Rainband]

With the first known tropical cyclone in the south atlantic, the question is.
How will this affect the 2004 Hurricane Season for the North Atlantic? Is this a precursor of whats to come? Are we watching history in the making, and don't relize what the coming 2004 atlantic hurricane season is about to become?
Just a question to ponder!!! Evdently, the winds must be favorable, as well as water temps, air temps, ect. This just doesn't happen, and is this an indication of the coming season for us?
I'll post a reply soon!!

Seems like the question I asked On the show may come to fruition

[Guest]

Very intresting question Bob which i have been thinking about as well today. Add this cane today with a very active ITCZ(For this time of year anyways) and it would IMO lead some to believe we are in for a whopper of a season in the Atlantic Basin. I will have more thought's on this as well later on!

Great question though and i cant wait to see everyone elses thoughts on this.

[mf_dolphin]

I would tend to say that this has nothing to do with the upcoming Atlantic season. I see this as just an anomaly. Fun and exciting but still just a quirk.

[Stormsfury]

Actually, the only other year that a South Atlantic TC developed (in our observed modern history) was back in 1991 ... and remember what that year was like ... aside from Hurricane Bob, it was a relatively inactive year ...

Kind of an explanation for what's going on right now is the global pattern around the world is becoming very blocked off ... look at the ECMWF, and GFS progs for the next week or so ... with MANY CUTOFF LOWS in the Northern Hemisphere ... and the South Atlantic Hurricane is no different, evolving from a cutoff low and making the transition to a warm-core hurricane ... what a bonus for us tropical weather enthusiasts to watch...

This thread has some 500mb progs from the GFS/ECMWF today ... and shows the cutoffs that are progged ...

Two straight years, The Atlantic makes history, tropical-wise...

Blocking Strength since the beginning of this year ...
[img]
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... nh_nrm.gif[/img]

SF

[Rainband]

I would tend to say that this has nothing to do with the upcoming Atlantic season. I see this as just an anomaly. Fun and exciting but still just a quirk.

There were a LOT of quirks last year

[Hurricanehink]

I think that if we do have an active year in the North, it will be own its own. I don't think this hurricane has anything to do with it, nor do I believe that a preseason storm in the north means more storms. Still, this is probably the new global pattern we are in (more storms).

[Derek Ortt]

I am actually wondering if this will mean an inactive season with the 2 S At cyclones. Remember, a TC's job is to transport heat from the tropics to the polar regions. With the 2 extra TC's, possibly some of the tropical heat has already been transported; thus, a less active N Atl season

[Rainband]

I think that if we do have an active year in the North, it will be own its own. I don't think this hurricane has anything to do with it, nor do I believe that a preseason storm in the north means more storms. Still, this is probably the new global pattern we are in (more storms).

I agree, weather is Global. In Reality it's all connected in it's own way. Wether it means a more active season or not remains to be seen. It peaks my interest, thats for sure to say the least

[Rainband]

I am actually wondering if this will mean an inactive season with the 2 S At cyclones. Remember, a TC's job is to transport heat from the tropics to the polar regions. With the 2 extra TC's, possibly some of the tropical heat has already been transported; thus, a less active N Atl season

Didn't this start as a cold core system?

[Derek Ortt]

Yes it did; however, it is still transporting some of the heat

[Rainband]

Yes it did; however, it is still transporting some of the heat

So doesn't that mean it tapped the heat in this area and didn't really take any form the "tropics" Second, is this area usually above normal with SST this time of year?

[mf_dolphin]

I don't know how much heat this is actually tapping from the tropics. It's pretty far south of the ITZ so I wouldn't expect it to have much of an impact overall.

[cycloneye]

Right now down there it is like september being the southern hemisphere so the SST'S are warm 80*F +to support a TC.But in terms of this affecting what will happen in the north atlantic the jury is out.

[Rainband]

I don't know how much heat this is actually tapping from the tropics. It's pretty far south of the ITZ so I wouldn't expect it to have much of an impact overall.

I agree

[hurricanemike]

There is no correlation. It doesn't affect the North Atlantic in anyway at all. Zero. Zetch. Nada.