We now have a hurricane! History has been made...

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Hyperstorm
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We now have a hurricane! History has been made...

#1 Postby Hyperstorm » Fri Mar 26, 2004 8:26 am

It has now achieved a Dvorak classification of 4.0 or 75mph.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

I wonder what the meteorologists must be thinking and saying. This is an incredible event that we may not witness ever again in our lifetime. Or will we? Is this a new trend of seeing out of season tropical cyclones in areas we're not used to seeing them? What is everyone's opinions on this impressive event?
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#2 Postby Hyperstorm » Fri Mar 26, 2004 8:39 am

I forgot to add that what's more interesting is that it has lasted more than any of the other "cyclones" that had formed in the South Atlantic and it's moving WEST! I'm concerned that we may see this holding together until it reaches the Brazilian coastline! Wow! Are they prepared for a possible strike? I wouldn't think so. I'm not seeing wind shear and in fact, latest images reflect an impressive (especially for this area) outflow expanding on all sides, especially to the south. Has anyone tried to look further into the future and studied the possible scenarios with this hurricane? I am interested in knowing where it might go next...
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#3 Postby weatherluvr » Fri Mar 26, 2004 8:44 am

Well, with 2 systems this year it's been proven that the South Atlantic certainly can support TC's, at least in terms of SST's.

It would be fair to consider that this region may have cycles of activity like other basins, but we don't have a long enough time period to study, in terms of satellite coverage. Or, it's possible that this was a unique event. I would LOVE to hear what the NHC has to say about this system.

Unbelievable!
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#4 Postby wxman57 » Fri Mar 26, 2004 9:04 am

Have a look at this McIDAS image I just made. Dvorak estimates now 4.0 = 65 kts = the firs South Atlantic hurricane ever recorded. I'll post more images through the day as I get a chance.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/sahurr1.gif">
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#5 Postby hurricanetrack » Fri Mar 26, 2004 9:48 am

What is the name of this hurricane? I see it listed as "storm 90" on the SSD stuff. Where is it on NRL? Who is writing advisories?

What the heck is going on? So, that hurricane is going to hit South America? Yikes. Have they ever had one that we know of? At least there?

I am quite taken-aback about all of this. Wow.
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#6 Postby Typhoon_Willie » Fri Mar 26, 2004 10:10 am

I just emailed the Hurricane Center regarding as to who may have responsibilty. I hope I get an answer back!
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#7 Postby wxman57 » Fri Mar 26, 2004 10:21 am

Here's a new image. The NHC and HRD are well aware of the storm. I've been involved in an e-mail discussion group taling about "responsibility". As far as anyone can determine, no one has South Atlantic tropical responsibility because storms aren't supposed to form there.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/sahurr2.gif">
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#8 Postby Hyperstorm » Fri Mar 26, 2004 10:25 am

That satellite image just tells me that it's getting stronger! Someone should take responsibility immediately for this system as it seems to be accelerating toward the coastline while it seems to strengthen. Now, this might sound unrealistic, but the system may strengthen to Category 2! NHC please take responsibility as lives may be endangered by this cyclone!
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#9 Postby vbhoutex » Fri Mar 26, 2004 10:28 am

This is indeed incredible!! And it isn't some malformed system like some we have seen classified in the last few years. I wonder if anyone will step up and take responsibility for issuing advisories if they are needed for Brazil. I have no idea if they have any kind of agency that can handle it. Obviously they have "weather offices", but are they versed enough and geared to handle something like this.

Makes you wonder if we are looking at another historical year with more firsts. We now have the first "first" in March instead of april. :?: :?:
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#10 Postby weatherluvr » Fri Mar 26, 2004 10:54 am

Thanks for the updates, wxman57. Keep us informed. This is surreal.
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Truley Amazing Indeed!

#11 Postby KatDaddy » Fri Mar 26, 2004 10:55 am

The last satellite shows a well defined tropical system that continues to strengthen.

VB your statement regarding "responsibilty" is correct. Someone better step up to the plate and start warnings people along the Brazilian Coast.

History made in the tropics again. Even though this has no bearing on the upcoming Atlantic season it makes you wonder what our season will bring.

Perhaps this is another warning sign that our planet continues to warm. Remember our two December systems last year.
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#12 Postby Derecho » Fri Mar 26, 2004 10:58 am

Hyperstorm wrote:NHC please take responsibility as lives may be endangered by this cyclone!


The World Meteorolgical Organization (WMO) are the folks who assign forecasts offices to basins. They also pick the storm names. It's their responsibility to do something, or tell someone to do something.
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#13 Postby MWatkins » Fri Mar 26, 2004 11:16 am

I think the problem is that there is no specific agency assigned to the south Atlantic.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutrsmc.shtml

There's no authority that I know of to name something down there...since there's no WMO list yet...my guess is the US Navy should take over forecasting responsibility? I bet this comes up at the next conference.

I'm sure folks at the TPC are coordinating with the government(s) down there even if they aren't making anything public. This is truly unbelievable.

Here were in a 12 month period we've seen:

1. An April (2003) TROPICAL, not sub-tropical, system in the North Atlantic
2. MULTIPLE named TROPICAL North Atlantic systems in December, 2003
3. A HURRICANE in the SOUTH ATLANTIC!

No question in my mind that the planet is getting warmer and we are entering, or already in, a new global era. I'm not getting into the alleged cause...however...

Interesting note (took me a while to remember where I saw this) from the Hurricane FAQ from the TPC site..there was a strong TD/weak TS in the basin in 1991.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/G7.html

MW
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#14 Postby Derecho » Fri Mar 26, 2004 11:24 am

I have little doubt there have been multiple storms like this previously over the past several thousand years in the South Atlantic.

30-40 years of satellite coverage is an eyeblink.

It's not really an SST-limiting issue, the limiting factor is shear.

It would have strained credulity to believe that something that is theoretically as variable as upper atmospheric shear would maintain itself FOREVER for all eternity and not allow a storm such as this one to pop up and persist.

And the idea of it being representative of any global weather trend is, IMHO, absurdly silly.

There have been plenty of weird weather events for all of recorded human history, and you have to consider that most were missed due to no weather satellites.
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#15 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Mar 26, 2004 11:24 am

This looks like it will come inland, slightly south of Rio (hopefully) within the next 36 hours.

As for the appearance, it definately appears to becoming much stronger as they eye is clearing and the outflow conitnues to expand
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#16 Postby Derecho » Fri Mar 26, 2004 11:35 am

Derek Ortt wrote:This looks like it will come inland, slightly south of Rio (hopefully) within the next 36 hours.


It's over 400 miles away from Rio and getting FURTHER away...movement is now considerably South of Due West.

It's heading for the southernmost state of Brazil, just above Uruguay. Rio is much further north than you think, I think.
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#17 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Mar 26, 2004 11:40 am

Thats good that the motion has changed.

I was looking at a map this morning (very undetailed) and it showed that the storm was, I believe, due west of Rio. However, there are a couple of more populated cities further south.

One good thing though is that the RFQ would likely not the the strongest part, but the LFQ due to the clockwise circulation. Therefore, if it were to tuirn back due west, rio would be on the weak side
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#18 Postby dixiebreeze » Fri Mar 26, 2004 11:53 am

:eek: Absolutely amazing! Here is one report:

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/publ ... .asp?iws=0
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#19 Postby MWatkins » Fri Mar 26, 2004 11:56 am

Derecho wrote:I have little doubt there have been multiple storms like this previously over the past several thousand years in the South Atlantic.

30-40 years of satellite coverage is an eyeblink.

It's not really an SST-limiting issue, the limiting factor is shear.

It would have strained credulity to believe that something that is theoretically as variable as upper atmospheric shear would maintain itself FOREVER for all eternity and not allow a storm such as this one to pop up and persist.

And the idea of it being representative of any global weather trend is, IMHO, absurdly silly.

There have been plenty of weird weather events for all of recorded human history, and you have to consider that most were missed due to no weather satellites.


Oh I'm sure it's happened before. It's the confluence of events I find remarkable.

MW
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#20 Postby stormraiser » Fri Mar 26, 2004 12:24 pm

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