Tropical Update: 23 Mar

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senorpepr
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Tropical Update: 23 Mar

#1 Postby senorpepr » Tue Mar 23, 2004 1:50 pm

First order of business is yesterday both JTWC and NRL dropped TD 02-W. However, NRL has brought it back as a invest system, in case of redevelopment. JTWC does not mention this at all in their ABPW. Therefore, for simplicity’s sake, I’m not going to mention it here, unless redevelopment is more likely. Secondly, over the course of the day, 98P and 99S were dropped while 97S was upgraded to TD 20-S. Additionally, we’ve added 90S.

:rarrow: A) TC Fay (18S): at 23/1649Z...
Position near 14.5S 121.0E (200nm NW of Yampi Sound, Australia)
Movement is quasi-stationary
Maximum sustained winds are 105 mph
Minimum central pressure is 954 mb
T# numbers: 4.0/5.0

Fay continues to slowly weaken as it remains parked nearby the Australian coast. Expect very minimal strengthening throughout the forecast period as Fay approaches toward Port Hedland.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warni ... 804web.txt

:rarrow: B) TD 20-S (20S): at 23/1730Z...
Position near 14.7S 98.5E (175nm SSE of Cocos Islands)
Movement toward the W at 7 mph
Maximum sustained winds are 40 mph
Minimum central pressure is 997 mb
T# numbers: 2.0/2.0

97S has been upgraded to TD 20-S. Expect normal strengthening as 20S moves westward. Toward the end of the forecast period, expect an 80 mph cyclone. Should 90S receive a name, it will be Oscar.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warni ... 004web.txt

:rarrow: C) Invest (90S): at 23/1730Z...
Position near 8.5S 55.8E (995nm NE of Antananarivo, Madagascar)
Maximum sustained winds are 25 mph
Minimum central pressure is 1004 mb
T# numbers: 1.0/1.0
Potential for development: Fair

90S is under very good divergence. However, moderate shear is plaguing the system. We’ll see how the system evolves.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/ab/abioweb.txt

Please utilize the above links for the latest advisories. For latest forecast tracks and satellite imagery (when available), go to the NRL Monterey's website at: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Remember for the latest storm information, to include watches, warnings, and storm track, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
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#2 Postby Hurricanehink » Tue Mar 23, 2004 4:53 pm

Whoa! Out of nowhere, 90S is now 21S! At least according to NRL Monterey's site. It doesn't have a map yet, but it says 21S Noname. Saying it's active right now is an understatement. Also, I think Fay won't strengthen at all, rather it will weaken. This is not a wish forecast, but it looks ragged and disorganized.
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#3 Postby senorpepr » Tue Mar 23, 2004 5:02 pm

Wow! 21S... already... wow. As for Fay, I agree. I don't foresee strengthening, but the official forecast calls for it, so I'll say that. But in my opinion, Fay will continue to weaken as she heads for land.
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#4 Postby senorpepr » Tue Mar 23, 2004 5:09 pm

the amendment for upgrading 90S to 21S

:rarrow: C) TD 21-S (21S): at 23/2100Z...
Position near 8.5S 56.0E (995nm NE of Antananarivo, Madagascar)
Maximum sustained winds are 30 mph
Minimum central pressure is 1002 mb
T# numbers: 1.0/1.0

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warni ... 104web.txt
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#5 Postby senorpepr » Tue Mar 23, 2004 7:29 pm

...and just after Elita and Gafilo struck Madagascar...

Image
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#6 Postby Typhoon_Willie » Tue Mar 23, 2004 8:30 pm

Wow I hope that this system will miss Madagascar! They have enough of tropical cyclones this year!
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#7 Postby senorpepr » Tue Mar 23, 2004 9:33 pm

...Another update... 20S has received it's name: Oscar...

:rarrow: B) TC Oscar (20S): at 24/0130Z...
Position near 14.6S 96.9E (175nm SSE of Cocos Islands)
Movement toward the W at 7 mph
Maximum sustained winds are 50 mph
Minimum central pressure is 991 mb
T# numbers: 2.5/2.5
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#8 Postby Typhoon_Willie » Wed Mar 24, 2004 1:21 am

Things are cooking in the South Indian Ocean right now!
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#9 Postby senorpepr » Wed Mar 24, 2004 1:34 am

No doubt... and before too much longer the ponds nearby will sparkle with activity
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#10 Postby Typhoon_Willie » Wed Mar 24, 2004 10:35 am

How true how true!
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