Tropical Update: 22 Mar

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senorpepr
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Tropical Update: 22 Mar

#1 Postby senorpepr » Mon Mar 22, 2004 2:08 pm

Overnight, the JTWC begun issuing advisories on Grace while ending advisories of TD 02-W.

:rarrow: A) TC Fay (18S): at 22/1649Z...
Position near 14.2S 120.4E (370nm NNE of Port Hedland, Australia)
Movement toward the W at 5 mph
Maximum sustained winds are 130 mph
Minimum central pressure is 927 mb
T# numbers: 5.5/5.5

Fay has slipped a little bit in strength, but is expected to resume the trend. Toward the end of the forecast period, expect a 150 mph cyclone to head towards the Australian coast, between Learmonth and Port Hedland.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warni ... 804web.txt

:rarrow: B) TC Grace (19P): at 22/1649Z...
Position near 21.0S 157.5E (600nm W of Noumea, New Caledonia)
Movement toward the ESE at 7 mph
Maximum sustained winds are 30 mph
Minimum central pressure is 1002 mb
T# numbers: 2.0/2.0

Moderate wind shear will be the biggest hindering factor to Grace’s development. Regardless, expect slow growth as Grace travels east-southeastward.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warni ... 904web.txt

:rarrow: C) Invest (97S): at 22/1800Z...
Position near 14.9S 100.9E (285nm ESE of Cocos Islands)
Maximum sustained winds are 25 mph
Minimum central pressure is 1004 mb
T# numbers: 1.0/1.0
Potential for development: Fair

97S is slowly coming together under weak to moderate shear and good divergence aloft.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/ab/abioweb.txt

:rarrow: D) Invest (98P): at 22/1649Z...
Position near 22.6S 170.6E (170nm ENE of Noumea, New Caledonia)
Maximum sustained winds are 30 mph
Minimum central pressure is 1002 mb
Potential for development: Fair

98P is growing descently under good divergence aloft with weak to moderate shear in the vertical atmosphere. With the improved satellite signature, the JTWC has upgraded this storm to a fair chance at development.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/ab/abpwweb.txt

:rarrow: E) Invest (99S): at 22/1800Z...
Position near 9.2S 55.8E (425nm ENE of the east coast of Northern Madagascar)
Maximum sustained winds are 15 mph
Minimum central pressure is 1006 mb
Potential for development: Poor

99S is under good divergence; however it is plagued with moderate shear aloft.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/ab/abioweb.txt

Please utilize the above links for the latest advisories. For latest forecast tracks and satellite imagery (when available), go to the NRL Monterey's website at: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Remember for storm information, to include watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
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#2 Postby F-Bo » Tue Mar 23, 2004 4:21 am

Poor Grace. Looked quite favorable for further development a couple of days ago when it was only listed as fair and now finaled after a mere three warnings. Oh well...

Otherwise JTWC issued a TCFA a few hours ago for the nagging invest area in the south IO, if memory serves me correctly 97S. Technically this should go in the 23rd, but a new thread didn't seem reasonable.

Anyways here's some links for the TC Formation Alert:

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warni ... 704web.txt
https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/sh9704.gif
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#3 Postby senorpepr » Tue Mar 23, 2004 1:31 pm

Thanks for helping out! ...and yes, it was 97S
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#4 Postby senorpepr » Tue Mar 23, 2004 1:33 pm

...which is now depression 20S. More to come on today's tropical update, which I'm working on now
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