Tropical Update: 21 Mar

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senorpepr
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Tropical Update: 21 Mar

#1 Postby senorpepr » Sun Mar 21, 2004 3:29 pm

A few changes today: we’ve dropped 96P, but picked up 98P and 99S in return. Additionally, we’ve upgraded 95P to 19P and gave it the name “Grace.”

:rarrow: A) TD 02-W (02W): at 21/1902Z...
Position near 16.6N 125.7E (260nm ENE of Manila, Philippines)
Movement toward the NE at 9 mph
Maximum sustained winds are 35 mph
Minimum central pressure is 1002 mb
T# numbers: 2.5/3.0

02W is slowly falling apart. This storm never received a name since the US Navy falls suit with local meteorology branches. In this case, the Japanese Met Agency. Since the JMA calculates winds on a 10-minute average versus the US and our 1-minute average, 02W never achieved tropical storm status. Regardless, this system is rapidly weakening and moving into the mid-latitude westerlies.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warni ... 204web.txt

:rarrow: B) TC Fay (18S): at 21/1649Z...
Position near 13.9S 122.2E (480nm NE of Port Hedland, Australia)
Movement toward the WSW at 5 mph
Maximum sustained winds are 140 mph
Minimum central pressure is 922 mb
T# numbers: 6.0/6.0

Fay is still gathering strength as she marches through the Timor Sea. Expect a little more strengthening before she reaches maximum intensity under a very favorable environment aloft. The official forecast has Fay topping off as a 145 mph cyclone, but further intensification is possible.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warni ... 804web.txt

:rarrow: C) TC Grace (19P): at 21/1649Z...
Position near 17.0S 152.3E (340nm E of Cairns, Australia)
Maximum sustained winds are 50 mph
Minimum central pressure is 1002 mb

Invest 95P was upgraded by NRL Monterey into 19P (Grace). This is in association with the Bureau of Meteorology in Australia. Regardless, expect the JTWC is begin issuing advisories later today. I’ve listed the link that Grace will be using once the JTWC issues advisories. However, until then you make use the second link for the ABPW outlook.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warni ... 904web.txt
https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/ab/abpwweb.txt

:rarrow: D) Invest (97S): at 21/1900Z...
Position near 14.1S 102.9E (360nm ESE of Cocos Islands)
Maximum sustained winds are 30 mph
Minimum central pressure is 1002 mb
Potential for development: Fair

97S is slowly coming together under weak shear and moderate divergence aloft. In the last 24 hours, 97P has strengthen quite a bit, and therefore, the potential for development has been upgraded.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/ab/abioweb.txt

:rarrow: E) Invest (98P): at 21/1649Z...
Position near 18.8S 169.1E (200nm N of Noumea, New Caledonia)
Maximum sustained winds are 15 mph
Minimum central pressure is 1006 mb
Potential for development: Poor

This new invest has formed under a pocket of moderate divergence aloft with weak shear.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/ab/abpwweb.txt

:rarrow: F) Invest (99S): at 21/1900Z...
Position near 10.2S 57.6E (500nm ENE of the east coast of Northern Madagascar)
Maximum sustained winds are 15 mph
Minimum central pressure is 1006 mb
Potential for development: Poor

This new invest is under good divergence; however it is plaque with moderate shear aloft.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/ab/abioweb.txt

Please utilize the above links for the latest advisories. For latest forecast tracks and satellite imagery (when available), go to the NRL Monterey's website at: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Remember for storm information, to include watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
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ColdFront77

#2 Postby ColdFront77 » Sun Mar 21, 2004 6:40 pm

Would this be considered above normal activity..... Six tropical systems across the world at the same time.
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#3 Postby senorpepr » Sun Mar 21, 2004 9:35 pm

I would say so, since there are really only 3 systems with 3 others being monitored for development.
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ColdFront77

#4 Postby ColdFront77 » Mon Mar 22, 2004 4:11 am

That's true, Mike. It sure does sound like having 3 systems and 3 developing is above average, too.
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