Tropical Update: 19 Mar

[senorpepr]

We finally dropped 92S.

A) TS 02-W (02W): At 19/1649Z...
Position near 12.1N 126.9E (360nm ESE of Manila, Philippines)
Movement toward the NW at 5 mph
Maximum sustained winds are 40 mph
Minimum central pressure is 997 mb
T# numbers: 2.0/2.0

02W is slowly coming together as it’s forward speed as slowed. Expect some slight strengthening prior to skirting the central Philippines for the next couple of days. Regardless, 02W has improved convection with maybe multiple low-level circulations. Should this system receive its name, it will be Sudal.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warni ... 204web.txt

B) TC Fay (18S): At 19/1649Z...
Position near 12.8S 125.2E (620nm NE of Port Hedland, Australia)
Movement toward the WNW at 2 mph
Maximum sustained winds are 105 mph
Minimum central pressure is 954 mb
T# numbers: 5.0/5.0

Fay is still gathering strength as she marches through the Timor Sea. Expect continued strengthening throughout the forecast period as Fay is forecasted to become a 130 mph cyclone by the end of the period.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warni ... 804web.txt

C) Invest (95P): At 19/1649Z...
Position near 17.0S 146.6E (50nm NE of Cairns, Australia)
Maximum sustained winds are 30 mph
Minimum central pressure is 1002 mb

95P is slowly coming together along the northern Australian coast. With the deepening low-level circulations, the potential for development has been upgraded to fair. It’s quite possible a TCFA will be issued within the next day or two. We’ll have to stay tuned.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/ab/abpwweb.txt

Please utilize the above link for the latest advisory. For latest forecast tracks and satellite imagery, go to the NRL Monterey's website at: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Remember for storm information, to include watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

[senorpepr]

We've got a new addition...

D) Invest (96P): At 19/2249Z...
Position near 13.3S 141.9E
Maximum sustained winds are 15 mph

[Rainband]

Thanks Mike

[Aslkahuna]

to news reports from the Philippines, TS02W (PAGASA name Butchoy) has messed up ferry service due to choppy seas around Samar, Leyte, Catanduanes and the Bicol. Beyond that, so far the main effect has been rain.

Steve

[senorpepr]

I was talking about the naming convention with another former JTWC forecaster. Why is the PAGASA name Butchoy when the WMO list has Sudal as the next name? Furthermore, since this system is a TS, why hasn't the Navy reflected that on their websites? Any ideas?

[*StOrmsPr*]

I was talking about the naming convention with another former JTWC forecaster. Why is the PAGASA name Butchoy when the WMO list has Sudal as the next name? Furthermore, since this system is a TS, why hasn't the Navy reflected that on their websites? Any ideas?

the PAGASA has its own name lists for sistems close to philippines
2004

Ambo
Butchoy
Cosme
Dindo
Enteng
Frank
Gener
Helen
Igme
Julian
Karen
Lawin
Marce
Nina
Ofel
Pablo
Quinta
Rolly
Siony
Tonyo
Undig
Violeta
Winnie
Yoyong
Zosimo

here link
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/names.htm

[senorpepr]

Ahhh... I see. Thanks for the info!!

[*StOrmsPr*]

Ahhh... I see. Thanks for the info!!

here the name lists for all basins including Pagasa and much more

http://www.meto.gov.uk/sec2/sec2cyclone ... names.html

[Aslkahuna]

has it's own area of responsibility for which it is responsible for all Public and Maritime Advisories and warnings. Within this AOR PAGASA is allowed to use it's own names on those advisories. One sees the same thing in the SIO with Australia and Reunion having their own name lists (also in the SoPAC). The reason that JTWC has not named TS02W is that the Typhoon Centre in Tokyo has not issued a name as of yet. JTWC is by agreement bound by the naming protocols of the RSMC in Tokyo. Tokyo uses 10 minute average wind values for classifying storms and they apparently do not think that 02W has reached the critical windspeed for a Tropical Storm and thus has not named it.

Steve

[senorpepr]

has it's own area of responsibility for which it is responsible for all Public and Maritime Advisories and warnings. Within this AOR PAGASA is allowed to use it's own names on those advisories. One sees the same thing in the SIO with Australia and Reunion having their own name lists (also in the SoPAC). The reason that JTWC has not named TS02W is that the Typhoon Centre in Tokyo has not issued a name as of yet. JTWC is by agreement bound by the naming protocols of the RSMC in Tokyo. Tokyo uses 10 minute average wind values for classifying storms and they apparently do not think that 02W has reached the critical windspeed for a Tropical Storm and thus has not named it.

Steve

I see... great info Steve

[senorpepr]

A quick night cap on our featured systems...

A) TS 02-W (02W): At 20/0601Z...
Position near 13.7N 125.5E
Maximum sustained winds are 40 mph
Minimum central pressure is 997 mb
T# numbers: 2.5/2.5

B) TC Fay (18S): At 20/0525Z...
Position near 13.2S 124.3E
Maximum sustained winds are 105 mph
Minimum central pressure is 954 mb
T# numbers: 5.0/5.0

C) Invest (95P): At 20/0525Z...
Position near 17.9S 147.2E
Maximum sustained winds are 30 mph
Minimum central pressure is 1002 mb

D) Invest (96P): At 20/0525Z...
Position near 13.3S 141.9E
Maximum sustained winds are 15 mph