Tropical Update: 18 Mar

[senorpepr]

Well, we dropped a few from yesterday: 91B, 98W, and 94S. In the meantime however, we’ve picked up 95P.

A) TD 02-W (02W): At 18/1613Z...
Position near 9.8N 129.3E (565nm ESE of Manila, Philippines)
Movement toward the NW at 18 mph
Maximum sustained winds are 35 mph
Minimum central pressure is 1000 mb
T# numbers: 1.0/1.0

02W still isn’t pulling together. This is mainly due to its very fast forward motion. Expect some slight strengthening prior to landfall in the central Philippines around 19/12Z, with weakening thereafter. Regardless, 02W has improved convection. Should this system receive its name, it will be Sudal.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warni ... 204web.txt

B) TC Fay (18S): At 18/1613Z...
Position near 13.2S 126.6E (635nm NE of Port Hedland, Australia)
Movement toward the W at 6 mph
Maximum sustained winds are 85 mph
Minimum central pressure is 967 mb
T# numbers: 4.0/4.0

Fay is still gathering strength as she hangs aside the Australian coast. Expect weaker-than-normal strengthening throughout the forecast period as hot, dry air intrudes from the south. Fay will end the period as an 115 mph cyclone.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warni ... 804web.txt

C) Invest (92S): At 18/1700Z...
Position near 16.7S 74.3E (530nm S of Diego Garcia)
Maximum sustained winds are 35 mph
Minimum central pressure is 1000 mb
T# numbers: 1.0/1.0

We’re still watching 92S for signs of development. Throughout yesterday, 92S has slowly strengthened with its central pressure dropping four millibars. The chance for development remains at poor.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/ab/abioweb.txt

D) Invest (95P): At 18/1613Z...
Position near 15.1S 146.0E (120nm N of Cairns, Australia)
Maximum sustained winds are 30 mph

The new invest today will be 95P, along the northern Australian coast. It has a developing low-level circulation and has a poor chance at development for the time being. We’ll have to stay tuned.

Please utilize the above link for the latest advisory. For latest forecast tracks and satellite imagery, go to the NRL Monterey's website at: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Remember for storm information, to include watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

[F-Bo]

95P is going to be a beast. Although the general steering flow will push this system away from Queensland off to the ESE (thankfully), once the LLC begins to become better organized this should really take off. Most of the strength and forecast parameters are giving this invest a green light, and I see no reason to disagree.

[senorpepr]

I must agree... this invest looks to be getting its act together.