Tropical Update: 16 Mar

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senorpepr
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Tropical Update: 16 Mar

#1 Postby senorpepr » Tue Mar 16, 2004 1:05 pm

Ah, things are coming back to normal on the tropic websites. Just in time for a little burst of activity…

:rarrow: A) TD Noname (02W): At 16/1613Z...
Position near 6.3N 136.9E (150nm ESE of Palau)
Movement toward the W at 7 mph
Maximum sustained winds are 35 mph
Minimum central pressure is 1000 mb
T# numbers: 1.5/1.5

The second depression of the NW Pac Season developed today, upgraded from 97W. The current forecast has 02W heading straight for the central Philippines as a 90 mph typhoon. This is a definite system to watch. Should this system receive its name, it will be Sudal.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warni ... 204web.txt

:rarrow: B) TC Fay (18S): At 16/1613Z...
Position near 12.0S 128.1E (110nm WNW of Darwin, Australia)
Movement toward the WSW at 8 mph
Maximum sustained winds are 35 mph
Minimum central pressure is 1000 mb
T# numbers: 3.0/3.0

Another new cyclone to develop today would be Fay, which was upgraded from 90P. Expect this system to receive her name before the days is over, or tomorrow morning. The current forecast track has Fay missing land for the time begin. The end of the forecast period has a 60 mph cyclone between Indonesia and Australia.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warni ... 804web.txt

:rarrow: C) Invest (92S): At 16/1630Z...
Position near 16.6S 83.1E (845nm WSW of Cocos Islands)
Maximum sustained winds are 25 mph
Minimum central pressure is 1004 mb

92S is still hanging around in the Indian Ocean with no indication of a low-level circulation. Because of this, the TCFA has been cancelled and its chance at development is now downgraded to poor. Regardless, we should still monitor this system as it remains under a moderately favorable upper-level environment.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/ab/abioweb.txt

:rarrow: D) Invest (91B): At 16/1630Z...
Position near 4.0N 92.0E
Maximum sustained winds are 15 mph

A new invest to start the day: 91B. This, I believe, is the first Invest system in the Bay of Bengal, or the Northern Indian Ocean for that matter. 91B currently sits just west of Northern Sumatra Island in Indonesia. This invest looks very weak and will be watched in case it does develop.

Please utilize the above link for the latest advisory. For latest forecast tracks and satellite imagery, go to the NRL Monterey's website at: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Remember for storm information, to include watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
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senorpepr
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#2 Postby senorpepr » Tue Mar 16, 2004 8:43 pm

FYI

New area to add... 98W in the NWPAC. 3.6N 163.4E Winds: 10mph.
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