Tropical Update: 14 Mar

[senorpepr]

With NRL Monterey still trying to come online, I’ll do the best I can here. Remember, they may be some invests that NRL Monterey is tracking, but the JTWC isn’t mentioning. Regardless, I’m following JTWC’s guidance.

A) Invest (98S): At 14/1800Z...
Position near 15.0S 91.9E (350nm WSW of Cocos Islands)
Maximum sustained winds are 25 mph
Minimum central pressure is 1004 mb
T# numbers: 1.0/1.5

98S is still hanging on. The JTWC has 98S under a poor potential for development.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/ab/abioweb.txt

B) Invest Alpha-W (9#W): At 14/1400Z...
Position near 5.0N 141.9E (350nm SE of Yap)
Maximum sustained winds are 30 mph
Minimum central pressure is 1005 mb

First of all, this system’s name isn’t Alpha. With NRL Monterey down, I will refrain from using the 90-series number until I’m sure what it is to save on confusion. Until I get the real 90-series number from either NRL or JTWC, or this system is upgraded to a depression, I will refer to it as ‘Invest Alpha-W’. Pressing on, Alpha-W has presented a large elongated circulation under deep convection. With good divergence and weak to moderate shear aloft, the JTWC has upgraded Alpha-W to a fair chance at development.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/ab/abpwweb.txt

Please utilize the above link for the latest advisory. For latest forecast tracks and satellite imagery, go to the NRL Monterey's website at: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Remember for storm information, to include watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

[senorpepr]

{i}A quick update here to refresh both 98S and what I had earlier labeled as “Alpha-W”. Additionally, we’ll add a new invest area near Australia: 90P. As for “Alpha-W,” after looking into the archives a bit, I saw that 01W was originally 94W. Keeping with the 90-series naming convention, I’ll rename “Alpha-W” as 95W. Both 90P and 95W, however, have yet to be confirmed identifiers.[/i]


A) Invest (98S): At 14/2100Z...
Position near 15.0S 91.9E (350nm WSW of Cocos Islands)
Maximum sustained winds are 25 mph
Minimum central pressure is 1004 mb
T# numbers: 1.5/1.5

98S has a fully-exposed low-level circulation. Aloft of this system is weak to moderate shear with moderate divergence. The JTWC has 98S labeled for a poor chance at development.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/ab/abioweb.txt

B) Invest (95W): At 14/2100Z...
Position near 5.1N 142.4E (350nm SE of Yap)
Maximum sustained winds are 25 mph
Minimum central pressure is 1004 mb

95W is under good divergence aloft with weak to moderate shear. JTWC expects to issue a TCFA within the next few hours as better satellite imagery helps determine the center position. Regardless, there is a fair chance for this system to develop.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/ab/abpwweb.txt

C) Invest (90P): At 14/2100Z...
Position near 11.0S 135.2E (80nm from Maningrida, Australia)
Maximum sustained winds are 25 mph
Minimum central pressure is 1002 mb
T# numbers: 1.5/1.5

This new invest is currently reflected on JTWC’s ABIO and ABPW due to it’s close proximity to the 135E line. In any event, 90P is under moderate shear and moderate divergence. This will keep 90P under a poor potential for development.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/ab/abioweb.txt
https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/ab/abpwweb.txt

Please utilize the above link for the latest advisory. For latest forecast tracks and satellite imagery, go to the NRL Monterey's website at: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Remember for storm information, to include watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.