Tropical Update: 11 Mar

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senorpepr
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Tropical Update: 11 Mar

#1 Postby senorpepr » Fri Mar 12, 2004 12:47 am

Sorry for the late update today. I had a bunch of random junk come up. The NRL Monterey’s site being down really didn’t help either. Regardless, here’s today’s data.

:rarrow: A) TC Gafilo (16S): At 11/2100Z...
Position near 24.7S 46.9E (320nm S of Antananarivo, Madagascar)
Movement toward the S at 2 mph
Maximum sustained winds are 30 mph
Minimum central pressure is 1002 mb

Gafilo, after at least 36 deaths on the island country of Madagascar, finally has received his last advisory from JTWC. The continued weakening trend has occurred from interaction with land. However, once Gafilo reemerges into the Indian Ocean, expect continued weakening with increased shear associated with a frontal boundary.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warni ... 604web.txt

:rarrow: B) TC Nicky-Helma (17S): At 12/0300Z...
Position near 19.9S 86.9E (680nm SW of Cocos Islands)
Movement toward the SSW at 7 mph
Maximum sustained winds are 80 mph
Minimum central pressure is 976 mb
T# numbers: 3.0/4.0

The cyclone formally known as Nicky has now being hyphenated with the name Helma. This is due to 17S crossing the 90E line which now put her into La Reunion’s area of responsibility. Regardless, 17S is now being referred to Nicky-Helma. Nicky-Helma saw a little burst of growth today with good outflow. However, expect a weakening trend to arise from increased shear. This will help transition Nicky-Helma into an extratropical cyclone.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warni ... 704web.txt

:rarrow: C) Invest (98S): At 11/1800Z...
Position near 12.9S 101.6E (280nm E of Cocos Islands)
Maximum sustained winds are 25 mph
Minimum central pressure is 1005 mb

Invest 98S, or the remnants of TC Evan (15P) remains weakly organized. Aloft of 98S is weak divergence and moderate shear which is hindering reorganization. Regardless, the JTWC has given 98S a poor chance at redevelopment.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/ab/abioweb.txt

Please utilize the above link for the latest advisory. For latest forecast tracks and satellite imagery, go to the NRL Monterey's website at: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Remember for storm information, to include watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
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#2 Postby Hurricanehink » Fri Mar 12, 2004 7:29 pm

JTWC now has an alert up. Is that for 98S? I am really confused without NRL Montery's site working.
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#3 Postby F-Bo » Fri Mar 12, 2004 11:38 pm

Hurricanehink wrote:JTWC now has an alert up. Is that for 98S? I am really confused without NRL Montery's site working.


The TCFA issued at 2300Z corresponds to the convection located just off the coast of SE Madagascar. Wierd thing is JTWC mentions no residual low from Gafilo. And in stark contrast, Reunion is classifying this as a subtropical low from the remnants of Gafilo.

I am confused too. If this does in fact strengthen to tc status does Reunion's Ex-Gafilo name take precedence over JTWC's naming? I'm guessing not - that is the official name will be ex-Gafilo - but I could be completely off base here.

At any rate it looks like the system will strengthen rather slowly and generally move off to the ESE - although the models are all over the place, the general movement is off to the E. We shall see.

I hope this was what you were referring to, and I hate to pose questions in response to a question! :wink:
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#4 Postby F-Bo » Sat Mar 13, 2004 2:27 am

F-Bo wrote:
Hurricanehink wrote:JTWC now has an alert up. Is that for 98S? I am really confused without NRL Montery's site working.


The TCFA issued at 2300Z corresponds to the convection located just off the coast of SE Madagascar. Wierd thing is JTWC mentions no residual low from Gafilo. And in stark contrast, Reunion is classifying this as a subtropical low from the remnants of Gafilo.

I am confused too. If this does in fact strengthen to tc status does Reunion's Ex-Gafilo name take precedence over JTWC's naming? I'm guessing not - that is the official name will be ex-Gafilo - but I could be completely off base here.

At any rate it looks like the system will strengthen rather slowly and generally move off to the ESE - although the models are all over the place, the general movement is off to the E. We shall see.

I hope this was what you were referring to, and I hate to pose questions in response to a question! :wink:



MY post should have been in the March 12th update, my apologies. I don't think it was out yet before I posted this and obviously my attention to detail isn't what it should be after 10 hours of forecasting!
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