For what it's worth- the folks at TSR- tropicalstormrisk.com, out of the UK, have now slightly lowered their probability of an above average hurricane season. In February, they gave it a 72% chance of being above average- now, it is down to 60%.
I do not know why they have lowered their probabilities. but obviously, something is responsible for that. Maybe they think El Nino will be enough of an ifluence. Not sure.
It's no big deal right now. We'll get another glimpse into the forecast future from Dr. Gray next month. Either way- we are getting closer to another hurricane season. That's enough to worry about in and of itself.
TSR lowers probability a little
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TSR lowers probability a little
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