hit Northern Madagascar with winds of 120 knots with gusts to 145 knots.!
Here is a url from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center...
https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/sh1604.gif
Looks like Gafilo may
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Typhoon_Willie
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Looks like Gafilo may
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Believe it or not it might not make it that far (at least not for the eye/llc impact). But even with the center making it to perhaps to 20S, 50E it will still bring torrential flooding and extremely dangerous winds to the island. Reunion is finally coming around on the turn to the south as well with no impact (well again, eye that is - some of the strongest winds will still be felt though, unfortunately)...
Long range shows this system is forecast to turn SE after 96 to 120 time period once the short-wave picks this sucker up (and sustain if not increase intensity). It doesn't seem too long ago that Elita plagued the island. I believe there was extensive damage during that backwards S movement of a storm if I remember correctly.
Long range shows this system is forecast to turn SE after 96 to 120 time period once the short-wave picks this sucker up (and sustain if not increase intensity). It doesn't seem too long ago that Elita plagued the island. I believe there was extensive damage during that backwards S movement of a storm if I remember correctly.
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F-Bo wrote:Believe it or not it might not make it that far (at least not for the eye/llc impact). But even with the center making it to perhaps to 20S, 50E it will still bring torrential flooding and extremely dangerous winds to the island. Reunion is finally coming around on the turn to the south as well with no impact (well again, eye that is - some of the strongest winds will still be felt though, unfortunately)...
Long range shows this system is forecast to turn SE after 96 to 120 time period once the short-wave picks this sucker up (and sustain if not increase intensity). It doesn't seem too long ago that Elita plagued the island. I believe there was extensive damage during that backwards S movement of a storm if I remember correctly.
Can I strike my previous forecast from the record?!
Beautiful storm on satellite, packing one heckuva punch, too.
*edit* Forgot to mention that Reunion's 1200Z forecast slam dunks Mad with the center making it all the way to 45E in 72 hours...I'm interested to see JTWC's forecast at 1800Z.
This leads me to a question. Sometimes JTWC issues 48 hours forecasts, sometimes 72 hours. Does anyone know the reason as to why the period difference?
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