When will the first storm form before june 1 or after?

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Feb 11, 2004 5:49 pm

We know that in 2003 Ana formed in mid april so the question is if this year a system will form before the official start date of june 1 or it will form after that date.My take is that this season Alex will form after june 1 around mid june.

The most important poll (Your predictions) will be posted at april 1.

#2 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Wed Feb 11, 2004 8:22 pm

Nah, I think we'll get a May storm. Climatoligcally speaking, a May storm occurs every 18 years, but we haven't had one for a while. I don't know why I think that a May storm will form.

#3 Postby **FLguy** » Wed Feb 11, 2004 8:31 pm

Hurricanehink wrote:Nah, I think we'll get a May storm. Climatoligcally speaking, a May storm occurs every 18 years, but we haven't had one for a while. I don't know why I think that a May storm will form.

its possible ---- perhaps a 40-60% likelihood that one does form. and if so, it will most likely be sub-tropical. and probably not make it to hurricane status.

OtherHD · #4 Postby **OtherHD** » Wed Feb 11, 2004 9:13 pm

Just going with the odds and saying after June 1.

Derek Ortt · #5 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Wed Feb 11, 2004 9:32 pm

It's actually about once every 8 years we have a May storm. The last one was 1997 (14 total... 15 if you count 1997 as it was a subtrop)

#6 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Feb 11, 2004 9:55 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:It's actually about once every 8 years we have a May storm. The last one was 1997 (14 total... 15 if you count 1997 as it was a subtrop)

Actually, the storm on May 31, 1997 was subtropical. Another subtropical storm formed in 1992 in April. Other subtropical storms formed in 1978, 1976, 1972, and another year.

In the last 100 years, there have been 12 pre-June tropical storms. See below:

1981: TS Arlene May 6-9
1970: H Alma May 17-27
1959: TS Arlene May 28 - June 2
1953: TS Alice May 26 - June 5
1952: TS 1 Feb 2-5
1951: H Able May 15-24
1948: TS 1 May 22-28
1940: TS 1 May 19-27
1934: TS 1 May 27-31
1933: TS 1 May 14-19
1932: TS 1 May 5-11
1908: H 1 March 6-9

What is interesting is the clustering of such early storms during the last warm Atlantic SST regime that began in 1926 and ended in 1969. 9 of the 12 early storms formed when the Atlantic SSTs were averaging above normal, as they have been since 1995.

Still, the odds are about 9-1 against an early season storm. So I vote no on that one.

JCT777 · #7 Postby **JCT777** » Thu Feb 12, 2004 8:56 am

I think it will happen after June 1 this year.

Stormsfury · #8 Postby **Stormsfury** » Thu Feb 12, 2004 10:32 am

The odd stats with May storms is that a lot of those formed in El Niño years, either weak or strong ... using the years, wxman57 sited ... for subtropical storms

(Source: CPC Impact on the US - Warm and Cold episodes)
1997 - Strong - (Warm)El Niño (at this time, in the incipient stage).
1992 - Strong - (Warm)El Niño
1978 - Weak - (Warm)El Niño
1976 - Weak - (Warm)El Niño
1972 - Strong - (Warm)El Niño

Now for the other years ...

In the last 100 years, there have been 12 pre-June tropical storms. See below:

1981: TS Arlene May 6-9 - (Neutral)
1970: H Alma May 17-27 - (Moderate Warm)
1959: TS Arlene May 28 - June 2 - (Strong Warm)
1953: TS Alice May 26 - June 5 - (Weak Warm)
1952: TS 1 Feb 2-5 - (Neutral)
1951: H Able May 15-24 - (Weak Warm)
1948: TS 1 May 22-28 - (Moderate Warm)
1940: TS 1 May 19-27 - (Strong Warm)
1934: TS 1 May 27-31 - (Neutral)
1933: TS 1 May 14-19 - (Neutral)
1932: TS 1 May 5-11 - (Moderate Warm)
1908: H 1 March 6-9 - (Cold Strong)

All years EXCEPT 1908, featured neutral to warm ENSO events...

I voted no ...

#9 Postby **Stephanie** » Thu Feb 12, 2004 1:26 pm

I'm going with the odds also and say after June 1. From the Summer of 2002 - Summer 2003, the weather was pretty extreme and having a tropical system develop early was kind of "the norm". This year the weather has settled down a bit so I'm going to assume that so will the tropical season.

#10 Postby **FLguy** » Thu Feb 12, 2004 4:05 pm

Stormsfury wrote:The odd stats with May storms is that a lot of those formed in El Niño years, either weak or strong ... using the years, wxman57 sited ... for subtropical storms

(Source: CPC Impact on the US - Warm and Cold episodes)
1997 - Strong - (Warm)El Niño (at this time, in the incipient stage).
1992 - Strong - (Warm)El Niño
1978 - Weak - (Warm)El Niño
1976 - Weak - (Warm)El Niño
1972 - Strong - (Warm)El Niño

Now for the other years ...

In the last 100 years, there have been 12 pre-June tropical storms. See below:

1981: TS Arlene May 6-9 - (Neutral)
1970: H Alma May 17-27 - (Moderate Warm)
1959: TS Arlene May 28 - June 2 - (Strong Warm)
1953: TS Alice May 26 - June 5 - (Weak Warm)
1952: TS 1 Feb 2-5 - (Neutral)
1951: H Able May 15-24 - (Weak Warm)
1948: TS 1 May 22-28 - (Moderate Warm)
1940: TS 1 May 19-27 - (Strong Warm)
1934: TS 1 May 27-31 - (Neutral)
1933: TS 1 May 14-19 - (Neutral)
1932: TS 1 May 5-11 - (Moderate Warm)
1908: H 1 March 6-9 - (Cold Strong)

All years EXCEPT 1908, featured neutral to warm ENSO events...

I voted no ...

nice catch, i was about to post on it but you beat me to it.

#11 Postby **MGC** » Sat Feb 14, 2004 6:30 pm

Odd would favor a STS over a TS. I'll go with the odds and say no storm before the official start on June 1........MGC

Rainband · #12 Postby **Rainband** » Sat Feb 14, 2004 6:47 pm

I will say yes. While the weather wasn't as violent this year as it could have been, it has still been odd. I think the oddity may continue into the hurricane season :wink:

David · #13 Postby **David** » Sat Feb 14, 2004 7:43 pm

I said before June 1st.

southerngale · #14 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Feb 16, 2004 5:32 pm

I think after June 1st.

Lindaloo · #15 Postby **Lindaloo** » Mon Feb 16, 2004 5:51 pm

I chose after June 1st too. We may be eating crow SG like last season. hehe.

southerngale · #16 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Feb 16, 2004 6:24 pm

Oh well, at least we're all used to it now. :lol:

Lindaloo · #17 Postby **Lindaloo** » Tue Feb 17, 2004 1:21 am

southerngale wrote:Oh well, at least we're all used to it now.

Yeah we have it mastered. lol

#18 Postby **wx247** » Sat Feb 21, 2004 5:08 pm

I will say before June 1st, but I agree... it will be subtropical. I am guessing it will be a late May one though.

Guest · #19 Postby **Guest** » Wed Feb 25, 2004 3:22 am

Im gonna say Before June 1st.

#20 Postby **vbhoutex** » Fri Feb 27, 2004 8:45 am

Talk about eating CROW!! Last season I think I almost developed a taste for it!!! So here goes- On or before May 14th we will have either a STS or a TS form this season, probably in the BOC or West GOM and heading ENE along a dieing front.

When will the first storm form before june 1 or after?

When will the first storm form before june 1 or after that date?

When will the first storm form before june 1 or after?

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