Tropical Update: 10 Feb

[senorpepr]

1) Invest (97P): At 10/1030Z...
Position near 13.2S 146.6E (200nm SSW of Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea)
Maximum sustained winds are 15-25 mph
Minimum central pressure is 1003 mb
T-numbers: 1.0/1.0

Satellite imagery indicates an increased spiral banding and rapid increase in convection. Favorable upper level diffluence with weak to moderate wind shear are present. The JTWC has upgraded 97P to a "fair" chance at development. The Bureau of Meteorology in Brisbane has given 97P a "moderate" chance of development for the next 24hrs.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/AJT ... bpwweb.txt
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ10810.shtml

2) Invest (98S): At 09/1800Z...
Position near 16.2S 120.3E (270nm NNE of Port Hedland, Australia)
Maximum sustained winds are 15-25 mph
Minimum central pressure is 1000 mb

Satellite imagery indicates increasing convection along with favorable upper-level diffluence and moderate to strong wind shear. The JTWC has given 98S a "poor" chance at development. The Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre in Perth has begun issuing advisories on this system. They state that this low may develop into a tropical cyclone during Wednesday.

***CYCLONE WARNING: Cape Leveque to Broome, Australia
***CYCLONE WATCH: Broome to Mardie, Australia

https://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/ab/abioweb.txt
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDW24100.txt

3) Invest (94W): At 09/2000Z...
Position near 7.4N 149.8E (440nm SE of Guam)
Maximum sustained winds are 10-15 mph
Minimum central pressure is 1006 mb

Satellite imagery indicates persistent convection with a weak low level circulation. Moderate diffluence, coupled with moderate wind shear, are present. The JTWC has given 94W a "poor" chance at development

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/AJT ... bpwweb.txt

Please utilize the above link for the latest advisory. For latest forecast tracks and satellite imagery, go to the NRL Monterey's website at: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[senorpepr]

UPDATE

1) Invest (97P): At 10/1700Z...
Position near 13.7S 145.6E (110nm ENE of Port Stewart, Australia)
Movement toward the WSW at 24 mph
Maximum sustained winds are 30-35 mph
T-numbers: 2.0/2.0

Satellite imagery indicates an increased spiral banding and rapid increase in convection. Favorable upper level diffluence with weak to moderate wind shear are present. The JTWC has upgraded 97P to a "good" chance at development. The Bureau of Meteorology in Brisbane has given 97P a "moderate" chance of development for the next 24hrs.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/AJT ... 704web.txt
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ10810.shtml

[JCT777]

Mike - I am glad you are staying on top of things. Keep up the great work!

[Aslkahuna]

is will it have enough sea room to develop into a storm before it landfalls.

Steve

[senorpepr]

That's what I was noticing. Not a great deal of water ahead of it in my opinion to favor development. I guess we'll see.

[senorpepr]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 13.7S1 145.6E6 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6S1 143.0E8,
APPROXIMATELY 40 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST AND INLAND OF PORT STEWART,
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA
INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS NOW OVER LAND.
THE CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER
LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CONTINUED TO MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. DUE TO LAND INTERACTION,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.//

[senorpepr]

Tropical Cyclone Fritz has crossed the sparsely populated coast in far north Queensland and is moving rapidly inland.

The weak category one cyclone crossed the coast near Charlotte Bay, about 350 kilometres north of Cairns on Cape York Peninsula.

It is moving westwards at 30 kilometres an hour with wind gusts up to 100 kilometres an hour near its centre.

The weather bureau says Cyclone Fritz should move across Cape York Peninsula during the day and may redevelop in the Gulf of Carpentaria during Thursday.

A cyclone warning is current for coastal and island communities between Lockhart River and Cape Flattery.

A cyclone watch is current for Gulf of Carpentaria coastal and island communities from Karumba westward to the Northern Territory border.

Heavy rain and local flooding are expected over the peninsula and northern tropical coast.

Jeff Callagan from the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre says Fritz has been difficult to track because it is between the Cairns and Weipa weather radars.

He says no serious damage is expected.

"The detail is what we don't know but we assume there's wind gusts around 100 kilometres an hour ... wild and wooly and very heavy rain, but probably didn't get enough time to be destructive," Mr Callagan said.

[senorpepr]

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER  7
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 11:02am on Wednesday the 11th of February 2004

A Cyclone Warning is now current for Gulf of Carpentaria coastal and island
communities from Karumba westward to the Queensland-Northern Territory border.

A Cyclone Watch extends west to Alyangula in the Northern Territory.

At 11am Ex-Tropical Cyclone Fritz was overland west of Cooktown on Cape York
Peninsula. It is expected to move into the Gulf of Carpentaria this evening when
it may begin intensifying again into a tropical cyclone.

Gales with damaging wind gusts to 100 km/hr could develop between Karumba and
the Queensland-Northern Territory border during Thursday morning.

Heavy rain and local flooding are expected over the Peninsula, Gulf Country and
North Tropical coast.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Fritz for 11 am:
Central Pressure   : 1000 Hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 40 kilometres of
                     latitude 15.2 degrees south
                     longitude 143.5 degrees east
                     about 190 kilometres west of Cooktown.
Recent Movement    : west-southwest at 20 kilometres per hour

 
People between Karumba and Alyangula should consider what action they need to
take, and listen to the next advice at 2 pm EST Wednesday. If you are unsure
about actions to be taken, information is available from your local Government
or local State Emergency Services.

[AussieMark]

IDW24100
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIAN REGIONAL OFFICE

Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 21
Issued at 9:55 am WST on Wednesday, 11 February 2004
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING is current for a developing tropical low for coastal
communities between Cape Leveque and Broome.
A CYCLONE WATCH extends south from Broome to Mardie.

At 9 am WST a tropical low was estimated to be approximately
175 kilometres west northwest of Broome and
245 kilometres west southwest of Cape Leveque
moving south at approximately 10 kilometres per hour.

The tropical low may develop into a tropical cyclone overnight. Gales are not
expected in coastal communities during the day, but may develop overnight. On
Thursday the system is expected to intensify as it moves towards the Pilbara
coast.

Details of the tropical low at 9 am WST.
Location of centre : within 100 kilometres of
Latitude 17.2 South Longitude 120.8 East.
Recent movement : South at 10 kilometres per hour.
Central Pressure : 994 hPa.

The State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.