Less and less warming in the Pacific

[hurricanetrack]

Once again, the weekly graphical output from CPC shows less and less warming in the Pacific. In fact, I would say that this week's graphic shows quite a bit less in the way of El Nino this summer.

So perhaps, should this trend continue, we will really see another very active hurricane season. I will see Dr. Gray at the National Hurricane Conference in April. Although I do not know him personally, I will attend his talk at the end of the conference where he goes in to great detail about his forecast. The lack of any significant El Nino would certainly keep the current forecast in check. We shall see.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/c ... cordxy.gif

[cycloneye]

Yes I agree that the trend in past weeks is for CPC to forecast very weak el nino that wont have much of an impact when hurricane season kicks in but still it is too early to call a definite trend towards a weak to moderate el nino,if it will stay neutral or la nina in a weak form appears..