Rose??

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Dec 16, 2003 8:06 pm

Unbelievable that we are past mid december still talking about tropical weather and another possible development in 2003???

Well one model CMC is showing some kind of low pressure in the western caribbean in the week of christmas.But will that low that the model is showing develop into another tropical entity?Well the waters are still warm in the western caribbean and that alone favors it.But it will be purely tropical or hybrid is another question.But let's see what transpieres in the next few days before christmas to see if another historic event happens or it is simply a broad low forming there and that may be it.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #2 Postby **senorpepr** » Tue Dec 16, 2003 9:44 pm

I would want to say that Rose is out of the question, but Odette and Peter remind me anything is possible.

#3 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Dec 16, 2003 9:48 pm

Agreed that the possibility to see Rose form is about 0% chance but after Odette and Peter as you said you can't say for sure that it is over for 2003.

Stormsfury · #4 Postby **Stormsfury** » Tue Dec 16, 2003 9:55 pm

I believe that this one depicted by the CMC is not gonna happen ... but it MAY be offering some hints at the possible storm (albeit, a little too warm at this time) for a BIG storm in the Eastern US, although, not looking like a snowstorm...

SF

Anonymous · #5 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Dec 17, 2003 10:35 am

Rose would be 0%, but Peter made me say 2%.

#6 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Wed Dec 17, 2003 7:22 pm

I don't know about 0%. I'd say 8%. Right now, it is getting impressive. Though I see no circulation, there is good, deep convection. Who knows, 3 Decembers isn't impossible...

#7 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Wed Dec 17, 2003 8:14 pm

Latest IR.......

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

#8 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Dec 17, 2003 8:52 pm

It is 2003 still a year of records so anything can happen even at this late in december.

Josephine96 · #9 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed Dec 17, 2003 8:57 pm

You must be kidding that we're this close to Christmas and may have 1 more storm. Unbelievable.

Maybe 2003 is still in overtime..

Josephine96 · #10 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed Dec 17, 2003 8:58 pm

That would really make my prediction of 14 look bad lol

#11 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Dec 17, 2003 9:15 pm

Josephine96 wrote:You must be kidding that we're this close to Christmas and may have 1 more storm. Unbelievable.

Maybe 2003 is still in overtime..

No I am not kidding John as the canadian model has been consistent in past runs about showing a low pressure south of Cuba.But what intriges me is why the other models dont show this and the only one that has something in the western caribbean is the canadian.

bahamaswx · #12 Postby **bahamaswx** » Wed Dec 17, 2003 9:19 pm

The Canadian model has been known to depict phantom storms.

Stormsfury · #13 Postby **Stormsfury** » Wed Dec 17, 2003 9:22 pm

bahamaswx wrote:The Canadian model has been known to depict phantom storms.

This very true...and in this case, it's a phantom ...

#14 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Dec 17, 2003 9:23 pm

No wonder the other globals dont show it but the consistency of that model is what it is interesting to follow in the next few days to see how many runs they will show it and if other globals join.

Stormsfury · #15 Postby **Stormsfury** » Wed Dec 17, 2003 9:30 pm

cycloneye wrote:No wonder the other globals dont show it but the consistency of that model is what it is interesting to follow in the next few days to see how many runs they will show it and if other globals join.

I just looked at the 00z CMC ensemble members and the ens. means do NOT support that scenario and are quite widely divergent in the MR ...

SF

#16 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Dec 17, 2003 9:34 pm

Stormsfury wrote:
cycloneye wrote:No wonder the other globals dont show it but the consistency of that model is what it is interesting to follow in the next few days to see how many runs they will show it and if other globals join.

I just looked at the 00z CMC ensemble members and the ens. means do NOT support that scenario and are quite widely divergent in the MR ...

SF

So Mike in other words Rose will not be a christmas surprise in the western caribbean next week at all.

#17 Postby **george_r_1961** » Wed Dec 17, 2003 9:40 pm

In my opinion there may be development down there but it will be non tropical..although its possible we could have a hybrid.

Derek Ortt · #18 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Wed Dec 17, 2003 10:14 pm

CMC has been one of the best this season at depicting development. It was the only model to depict Isabel as a significant TC as far east as it became one, correctly depicted the development of jimena, correctly depicted the intensity of odette and has overall been the best one this year. Much better than that GFS crap

Stormsfury · #19 Postby **Stormsfury** » Wed Dec 17, 2003 11:17 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:CMC has been one of the best this season at depicting development. It was the only model to depict Isabel as a significant TC as far east as it became one, correctly depicted the development of jimena, correctly depicted the intensity of odette and has overall been the best one this year. Much better than that GFS crap

The CMC does develop many, many phantom storms as well ... however, I give a lot of credit to the Canadian model in regards to latching on to several systems this year, including Isabel ... in hindsight, the GFS DID correctly depict the mesoscale features (vorticities) in its inception, and the more I thought about it (when I saw Lyon's breakdown about the mesovorticies within the center), the more the GFS depiction made sense, though the CMC nailed out the bombing. However, the GFS actually did very well, and showed LESS phantoms this year. I don't remember or know who had the verification scores regarding that, but a discussion I read was quite interesting ...

SF

HurricaneGirl · #20 Postby **HurricaneGirl** » Thu Dec 18, 2003 10:28 am

Holy Crap!!

Rose??

Rose??

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