Invest 97L and it's potential future ...

[Stormsfury]

Well, the CMC has done quite a job with the vorticity becoming something of interest this late in the tropical season ... the convection has become QUITE CONCENTRATED this evening in the Eastern Caribbean ... there appears to be some enhancement from baroclinicity from a much weakened TUTT low as a shortwave ridge appears to be developing around 97L

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

Right now, there's no real clear cut LLC with the system as seen on IR2 imagery ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Last QSCAT pass indicated a closed low well southwest of the main area of convection (I believe this pass is 22 hours old) ...



NOAA-16 AMSU pass on Ch.1 and Ch.8 indicate 41 kts at 13.8ºN, 68.4ºW




Currently, an inverted trough is within the region and a piece of vorticity combined with the tropical wave is expected to break off and induce a low pressure system ... shown nicely by the GFS among other models ...

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Temp/TempLoops/GFSMSLP.html

Also shown well (925mb Vort on the CMC and the 950mb Vort GFS)

12z 925mb Vort CMC
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmctc2.cgi? ... =Animation

12z 950mb Vort GFS
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avntc2.cgi? ... =Animation

The NOGAPS is also on board with the system as well as the NOGAPS 9 member ensemble mean... and also is closely supported by the GFS and the CMC and its 16 ensemble members.

The EURO which is showing the mid-latitude features quite nicely even though it isn't showing any real surface reflection in the E. Caribbean and ATL, shows quite a strong extratropical mid-latitude storm sweeping off the NE US/E Canada ... The ECMWF has 51 ensemble members and unfortunately I cannot view these b/c I don't the big $$$ to shell out.

The UKMET is the ONLY model which would indicate ANY remote possibility of even making it any further west ... and is totally clueless ...

The NOGAPS and its ensemble members do NOT show this US/GOM threat, the GFS and its ensemble mean do not show this US/GOM threat ... and only 1 CMC ensemble member (CMC2) even shows a potential Southern Florida BRUSH from a lolligagging hurricane before being RAPIDLY PULLED NORTHEAST ... and that's a very extreme outlier scenario ... one other ens. member is showing another disturbance (currently down in the SW Caribbean) moisture field being drawn northward across S. Florida into the mid-latitude extratropical system which is expected to affect the East in the next 2-3 days.

16 CMC ensemble members 10 day loop
http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Mode ... mbles.html

I am 99.99% sure this DOES NOT get into the US/GOM ... period.

SF

[wxman57]

It's future does appear to be North then NNE then NE - probably passing over or even east of PR in 48-60hrs. I do think that if it develops an LLC that it'll go immediately to a TS, as I've seen several ship reports of 35+ kts already, and I'm sure a recon plane would find at least SOME 50+ kt winds at 1500 ft. I think there's probably a better than 50/50 shot we'll have Odette in the NE Caribbean heading toward PR or the Virgin Islands in 36-48hrs. But it'll be mostly a rain-maker, and a big one at that. 20" for PR could be conservative if this thing moves slowly across the area. Imagine 2 days with rainfall rates in the heavier squalls of 5-8 inches/hr. During Allison in 2001, we had rain falling at 6+ inches per hour for hours on end.

[cycloneye]

57 if it is going to move over us I hope it does it quickly because the grounds are saturated from 5 days of rains. And we dont want to see another Hortense massive flooding event.

[Rainband]

It's future does appear to be North then NNE then NE - probably passing over or even east of PR in 48-60hrs. I do think that if it develops an LLC that it'll go immediately to a TS, as I've seen several ship reports of 35+ kts already, and I'm sure a recon plane would find at least SOME 50+ kt winds at 1500 ft. I think there's probably a better than 50/50 shot we'll have Odette in the NE Caribbean heading toward PR or the Virgin Islands in 36-48hrs. But it'll be mostly a rain-maker, and a big one at that. 20" for PR could be conservative if this thing moves slowly across the area. Imagine 2 days with rainfall rates in the heavier squalls of 5-8 inches/hr. During Allison in 2001, we had rain falling at 6+ inches per hour for hours on end.

Chris didn't you say tropical depression was the most it could be because of the shear. I read that earlier???? Whats changed??? Thanks

[Stormsfury]

It's future does appear to be North then NNE then NE - probably passing over or even east of PR in 48-60hrs. I do think that if it develops an LLC that it'll go immediately to a TS, as I've seen several ship reports of 35+ kts already, and I'm sure a recon plane would find at least SOME 50+ kt winds at 1500 ft. I think there's probably a better than 50/50 shot we'll have Odette in the NE Caribbean heading toward PR or the Virgin Islands in 36-48hrs. But it'll be mostly a rain-maker, and a big one at that. 20" for PR could be conservative if this thing moves slowly across the area. Imagine 2 days with rainfall rates in the heavier squalls of 5-8 inches/hr. During Allison in 2001, we had rain falling at 6+ inches per hour for hours on end.

Chris didn't you say tropical depression was the most it could be because of the shear. I read that earlier???? Whats changed??? Thanks

I highlighted (bold printed) the two lines that emphasizes the reasoning ...

[Rainband]

Thanks SF. I guess conditons change hour by hour I thought the shear was gonna make significant development impossible.

[wxman57]

Right, SF. Even though it really doesn't HAVE a true TS circulation, I have little doubt that the NHC would call it a TS based upon winds that have been observed for brief periods in squalls. Also, the squalls have become much more concentrated now, more than I thought they would so quickly. Another reason it could become Odette.

[Stormsfury]

Thanks SF. I guess conditons change hour by hour I thought the shear was gonna make significant development impossible.

This was the 12z GFS run regarding the 300mb-850mb shear profiles and it really weakens the shear parameters (maybe a little too quick, IMO, but the general idea is for a little less hostile wind environment aloft in the next 24-48 hours)

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Temp/TempLoops/GFSshear.html

[Rainband]

Right, SF. Even though it really doesn't HAVE a true TS circulation, I have little doubt that the NHC would call it a TS based upon winds that have been observed for brief periods in squalls.

By their track record...I agree and understand your comments. Thanks