Hmmm, CMC ensembles and CMC still hint at ATL development...

[Stormsfury]

12z CMC run (bottom right frame at 144 hrs) --- showing a closed area of low pressure just coming into view ... The 00z CMC ensemble spread are split with what kind of development occurs ... What was absolutely frightening was the CMC7 ensemble member (but NOT likely to occur) but well worth posting the 120 hour frame for entertainment ...

12z CMC run ...
http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_am ... _panel.gif

00z CMC run - vorticity signature quite impressive at the 925mb level.
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmctc2.cgi? ... =Animation

00z CMC ensemble 16 member spread at 120 hours ... the one member that will IMMEDIATELY glare at you is the extremely strong area on CMC7... however, out of the 16 members, half of those are showing SOMETHING ranging from a disturbance to a MEGABOMB of a storm.

00z 11/05/03 CMC ensemble Java Loop
http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Mode ... mbles.html

However, unlike last night, tonight's model guidance runs aren't lending much support to the CMC's idea ...

12z GFS sure doesn't ... it does show the area of vorticity spinning up but ends up being squelched by the strength of the strong Central Atlantic High.

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avntc2.cgi? ... =Animation

12z UKMET is very unimpressive ...

The 18z NOGAPS (that's right, the 18z NOGAPS) ... remember, it's run 4 times a day now and part of the NEW NOGAPS/COAMPS site ... I totally recommend it and definitely take the time to register ... it's free and well worth it ...

Anyways, back to the run ... the vorticity signature, NOGAPS handles differently, keeping it a little more south and west of the CMC and more in line with the GFS, however ... that's where the similarities end with NOGAPS/GFS ... The NOGAPS run begins to tighten the streamlines in the EASTERN CARIBBEAN with a strong signature heading straight for Puerto Rico by the end of the 144 hr period ... though surface winds aren't overly impressive at this time.

Unusually strong ridges, NEG MJO pattern leads me to believe we have still that room for one November system ... and it just might be not where you'd expect for this time of year ...

[Rainband]

SF post the link for the NOGAPS/COAMPS site Please

[Stormsfury]

SF post the link for the NOGAPS/COAMPS site Please

There you go, Johnathan.
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/mywxmap/index.jsp

[Rainband]

SF post the link for the NOGAPS/COAMPS site Please

There you go, Johnathan.
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/mywxmap/index.jsp

Thanks

[Steve H.]

Seems like the CMC stands alone. Puts it right on top of the DR (as usual), but still develops a hurricane. I don't see any other model support expect for the NOGAPS, which shows a cluster of T'storms in the central Caribbean. Let's see if the CMC can pull off a coup BTW, foggy and extremely humis in East Central Florida this morning....yuck

[LMolineux]

Yes it surely does almost 100%stand alone but it also does drive a nice trough into the east as well. Kinda Contradicting itself. only an observation.

[Steve H.]

Well, 12Z NOGAPS wants to join the party as it briefly closes off a low just south of the DR.