Next Years Tropical Season of 2004

[LMolineux]

Honestly after this year and a weak El Nino that has or forming now. I honestly feel we will have a very unactive season in the Atlantic Basin. Even the GOM will be very silent but yet it does only take one major storm to void my statement but other wise what signs i am seing is showing me that next year will be very silent that we will be nit picking every little cloud out there in hope of something to develope.

[Stormsfury]

Honestly after this year and a weak El Nino that has or forming now. I honestly feel we will have a very unactive season in the Atlantic Basin. Even the GOM will be very silent but yet it does only take one major storm to void my statement but other wise what signs i am seing is showing me that next year will be very silent that we will be nit picking every little cloud out there in hope of something to develope.

Some of the most intense and devastating storms have come from El Niño seasons ...

Andrew in 1992
Alicia in 1983
Agnes in 1972

Just to name a few ...

Several Niño Models are at odds in regards to just HOW the El Niño takes shape ... but looking like a Niño season ahead, nonetheless ...

[LMolineux]

Honestly after this year and a weak El Nino that has or forming now. I honestly feel we will have a very unactive season in the Atlantic Basin. Even the GOM will be very silent but yet it does only take one major storm to void my statement but other wise what signs i am seing is showing me that next year will be very silent that we will be nit picking every little cloud out there in hope of something to develope.

Some of the most intense and devastating storms have come from El Niño seasons ...

Andrew in 1992
Alicia in 1983
Agnes in 1972

Just to name a few ...

Several Niño Models are at odds in regards to just HOW the El Niño takes shape ... but looking like a Niño season ahead, nonetheless ...

You are Correct SF for sure. But i did make a note of it takes one storm to blow the whole thing off of a none active season. Andrew for an Example for sure. But yes This El Nino infact will be somethign to seriously keep and eye on and watch for any sudden change or deveation. Which i feel will happen it will surge and pulse this time leading me to think it will be one of the toughest winters/spring an summer's to forecast espeically true storm tracks and storm developement.

[Steve]

A lot of the major storms to affect this part of the GOM have come from El Nino years. I'm not 100% but I think Betsy, Camille and Andrew all formed in El Nino years.

Anyway, 2004 should be an interesting season. It's WAAAAAAY too early to speculate, but it's my guess that any El Nino isn't going to be that dramatic througout the whole season. The basin has been neutral for a while now, warmer (+1-2) sporadically in zones 3 & 4. El Nino years usually include TUTT features that can shear storms.

Btw, if anyone has any historical statistics on slightly warm, waxing El Nino seasons, drop me a link.

Some things I'm going to be watching out for through the spring will be the water temperature profiles in the Atlantic, whether or not there remains trof splitting in the western hemisphere despite any warming in the EPAC, and the rainfall distribution in the east. Those are some of the early indicators to lock onto. Also, because of the recent uptick in activity (NS/season) to the most active period ever (?), it would hard to automatically assume a 7-10 storm season. El Nino or not (unless it comes on really strong at some point to suppress the season), the safe money would bet on a greater than average number of storms.

Steve

[AussieMark]

Destructive Hurricanes in El Nino years

1957-Audrey
1959-Gracie
1963-Flora
1965-Betsy
1966-Inez
1969-Camille
1972-Agnes
1977-Anita
1983-Alicia
1991-Bob
1992-Andrew

http://www.intellicast.com/DrDewpoint/Library/1310/

[wxman57]

Honestly after this year and a weak El Nino that has or forming now. I honestly feel we will have a very unactive season in the Atlantic Basin. Even the GOM will be very silent but yet it does only take one major storm to void my statement but other wise what signs i am seing is showing me that next year will be very silent that we will be nit picking every little cloud out there in hope of something to develope.

There was an excellent article on the effects of El Nino/La Nina on tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic basin a few years back. Basically, the author concluded that there was NO statistical relationship between a mild/weak El Nino/La Nina and reduced or enhanced numbers or intensities of storms. However, there was a strong relationship between a strong El Nino and reduced numbers of Atlantic Basin storms.

I might remind you that 2003 was a weak El Nino season, and it wasn't exactly quiet.

I think other factors like the enhanced North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation and the resulting above-normal SSTs would be a greater indicator. The state of the QBO would be something to take into consideration.

[OtherHD]

I thought 2003 was neutral, while 2002 was weak El Nino. :-?

[wxman57]

I thought 2003 was neutral, while 2002 was weak El Nino. :-?

The years go by so fast. You're right. But it still stands that a weak El Nino has little effect on the tropical season.

[Anonymous]

2002 was actually more of a moderate El Nino. This season was, overall, neutral, though the current SSTA indices suggest that we're not far from officially being in a weak El Nino.

If ENSO was neutral, why wasn't this an average season? Mostly because 1)the Atlantic thermahaline circulation was running real strong, as wxman pointed out and 2)several other lesser factors, such as the Azores High, SLPAs, and TUTT, were all generally conducive.

Now regarding 2004...even if we were to see a weak El Nino, that doesn't guarentee we'll see an inactive season. You have to take other factors into consideration, and never hug the ENSO models, they bust atrociously at times, even when they're in agreement. That's all I'm going to say on this matter until our first 2004 preliminary outlook is released at the end of the month.

[JCT777]

Looking into my crystal ball, I think we are capable of getting at least 10 named systems in 2004. It has been a while since we have had a year with less than 10 named systems in the Atlantic.

[weatherluvr]

Destructive Hurricanes in El Nino years

1957-Audrey
1959-Gracie
1963-Flora
1965-Betsy
1966-Inez
1969-Camille
1972-Agnes
1977-Anita
1983-Alicia
1991-Bob
1992-Andrew

http://www.intellicast.com/DrDewpoint/Library/1310/

Was 1969 an El Nino year? Because that was one of the most active seasons on record. Twelve hurricanes, 5 major, including Camille.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1969/index.html

[AussieMark]

i know but its listed on the site that i have published the link for as a warm episode.


http://www.intellicast.com/DrDewpoint/Library/1310/

[Josephine96]

I'm not making my 2004 predictions till next season lol

[Steve]

Hey SuperCane,

Early in the year, there was some disagreement around the web I think about the QBO. If I remember, Barometer Bob was pretty sure they'd be westerly when it counted and you guys thouht easterly (or vice versa).

How did that pan out? I haven't even looked at any QBO indexes since Dr. Gray's June Forecast.

Thanks,

Steve

[LMolineux]

You wanna know what si so wacked and funny. I held onto my forecast from the Get go and was 95% correct amazingly. But still you gotta go with raw data and not back off its when you backoff you get burnt or worse ran over like you have been hit with a mack truck. But still i hate to bash Dr. Gray. But he just bombed out bad this year by changing his forecast midstream if he would of stuch with hsi orginal forecast then maybe just maybe he would of nailed this year like i did. But none the less i do have tons of respect for him.
http://www.theheadnut.com/hurricane.html take a look for yourselfs then tell me?

[Anonymous]

Hey SuperCane,

Early in the year, there was some disagreement around the web I think about the QBO. If I remember, Barometer Bob was pretty sure they'd be westerly when it counted and you guys thouht easterly (or vice versa).

How did that pan out? I haven't even looked at any QBO indexes since Dr. Gray's June Forecast.

Thanks,

Steve

Yeah we thought it'd be easterly...turns out it was. Here are the QBO values from Jan to Sep (negative indices means easterly, positive means westerly):

2003 -1.39 -1.44 -3.30 -8.57 -13.94 -18.01 -22.99 -24.64 -22.51

[Stormsfury]

Hey SuperCane,

Early in the year, there was some disagreement around the web I think about the QBO. If I remember, Barometer Bob was pretty sure they'd be westerly when it counted and you guys thouht easterly (or vice versa).

How did that pan out? I haven't even looked at any QBO indexes since Dr. Gray's June Forecast.

Thanks,

Steve

Yeah we thought it'd be easterly...turns out it was. Here are the QBO values from Jan to Sep (negative indices means easterly, positive means westerly):

2003 -1.39 -1.44 -3.30 -8.57 -13.94 -18.01 -22.99 -24.64 -22.51

BTW, the October QBO numbers are -20.35 ...

Historically, the QBO index below -20 doesn't go to positive until February.