Invest 96L still looks fairly much cold-core and dead in ...

[Stormsfury]

the water. Notice the Stratocu on the western extent of the center. The environment is still clearly cyclonic with what now appears to be a new ULL to the SW of the lower level swirl. One other thing is .... where's the convection?

SSD satellite estimates have rendered a TOO WEAK on the system ... if NHC didn't upgrade it when the ST 2.5/2.5 number was assigned to it, they sure as heck won't upgrade the system now ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
03/1745 UTC 27.1N 83.6W TOO WEAK 90
03/1145 UTC 26.7N 81.5W OVERLAND 90
03/0545 UTC 26.6N 79.0W ST1.5/1.5 90
02/2345 UTC 26.5N 77.1W OVERLAND 90
02/1745 UTC 27.4N 75.1W T1.5/1.5 90
02/1145 UTC 27.8N 71.7W ST2.5/2.5 90
02/0545 UTC 27.5N 70.1W ST2.5/2.5 90
01/1745 UTC 27.8N 67.0W T1.0/1.0 90

[Stormcenter]

it's not dead until it's inland and dissapating. It still has a lot of water to travel. Oh well, at least it's something to keep the board interesting.

[Stormsfury]

It'll maintain a cyclonic circulation ... but with that amount of shear over it (as usual with model progs in the MR, the shear hasn't relaxed, but INCREASED from the north over the system with the placement of the ULL now to the SW of this LLS ...

Shortwave ... clearly (as of 8:05 pm EDT) the convection is severely displaced well south of the low) as it races west at 20 mph ... The WV loop and environment around the invest isn't any better and if you look VERY CAREFULLY ... another upper level swirl can be seen initiating over or west of Tampa, FL.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[AussieMark]

Has anyone notice the amount of Dry air over the Gulf of Mexico i will be astounded in the least if it even developed at all...As those are conditions that have killed off very strong hurricanes in recent years.

[Stormsfury]

Has anyone notice the amount of Dry air over the Gulf of Mexico i will be astounded in the least if it even developed at all...As those are conditions that have killed off very strong hurricanes in recent years.

Bingo.

[ColdFront77]

In the last couple hours it appears, at least... that the dry air is moving a tad faster westward, away from the system in the Gulf of Mexico. In fact it has move more northerly than westerly in the last several hours.

The wind shear decreased into last night and this morning. I would say the dry is by far more the issue than the upper level wind shear.

[cycloneye]

Time is running out for that low to develop as it closes in on the gulf coast and if it develops it has to gain convection and wrap around the low quickly.