Regarding the SUBtropical system ...

[Stormsfury]

IF the NHC upgrades the system to a classified system, it SHOULD be deemed SUBTROPICAL ...

Here's why ...

1) Take a look at the environment ALOFT ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

The cyclone is embedded within a large scale cyclonic flow (mid and upper level low with a low level low pressure center now generating convection closer to the center). The high to the north is squelching the northern end of the system (shearing the northern end in a divergent pattern aloft) and also causing quite a nice pressure gradient with the cyclone.

2) Easily seen with WV and IR imagery, a jet streak feeding straight into the deep area of convection ... divergent shear (dynamically enhanced -- baroclinic effects) whatever you want to call it ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

The bottom line is now to expect some sort of development (but still not likely a serious situation by any means) as it approaches Florida ... remember, MOST of the worst weather will be NORTH of the subtropical system ...

As this system progresses its way westward towards the GOM, it looks pretty uniaminous that the vorticity of the system will be sheared out and lose it punch and identity ...

SF

[Stormsfury]

This is a SKEW-T (Vertical Sounding at 27ºN, 74ºW) and still shows quite a bit of dry air at the 700 mb level and higher). The subtropical cyclone is to its NE ...

Last 24 HOURS - Click HERE

Current SKEW-T (Vertical Sounding Profile)