That sound of crickets chirping...

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Derecho
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That sound of crickets chirping...

#1 Postby Derecho » Sat Nov 01, 2003 2:35 pm

Is the response to the last few runs of the NHC (BAMD, BAMM, A98E, LBAR) models.

Normally, people discuss them a lot, of course I'd like to believe it's because people have finally caught on they usually aren't that great and the globals are better, but I suspect it's another reason :-).

I've of course been far more interested in the Aurora this week than the psuedo-Nick remnants, but after looking at the situation the key thing is that at no point does the upper-level environment look favorable for creating a credible fully-tropical threat to anyone.

And North GOM SSTs have already seriously cooled.

The globals are probably right about wherever whatever exists going, the problem is it's likely to be not much of note intensity-wise.
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ColdFront77

#2 Postby ColdFront77 » Sat Nov 01, 2003 2:37 pm

Forecast models are brought up and we are encouraged to discuss what they are indicating (and not indicating). Shouldn't we discussed them here at Storm2K?

Many of us, including you Derecho post what the models are saying and we discuss them. Should we not do so? :)
Last edited by ColdFront77 on Sat Nov 01, 2003 2:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 01, 2003 2:38 pm

Agree with you Derecho the gulf coast may not see anything from this as it may dissipate or be only a weak low causing some gusty winds in the floridian coast because only due to the pressure gradient between the strong high and the low.
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#4 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Nov 01, 2003 3:24 pm

UL's do become favorable over the SE GOM come early next week and SST's in the north GOM are still above 80 degree's and well above 80 degree's in the southern half. This system does have potential and should not be simply written off.

North Gulf still above 80.................

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... tion=42039
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#5 Postby Stormsfury » Sat Nov 01, 2003 3:33 pm

Two different looks of the Maximum Potential Hurricane Intensity and Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential once again ...

Remember, this map here is based on 100% ideal conditions!
Image

And the TCHP (Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential) - only high in one band (GOM - roughly the same locale where Opal dynamically increased back in 1995) - but in this case, not very impressive - in fact, the entire GOM outside of this one location has a LOW TCHP.

The depth of the 26C waters are most impressive in that same area for TCHP.
Image

Image

Image

26C SST's
Image
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