Low south of Bermuda not moving

[bocavice]

Why isn't this low pressure system moving, it appears to be stationary,but the mets here in S FL say it will be here on Sunday even though its 600 miles away. I'm new so maybe I'm missing something?

[Stormsfury]

The environment. The high pressure in the GOM is carving out a trough (and feeding into the mid-level circulation of the low) ... The flow is becoming cut off (hence the system looking like it's gonna be cut off from the main flow and basically if it develops a warm-core at the surface, the system will become trapped in its own environment - cyclonic).

We've seen a lot of waffling with the models (especially the tropical models) which now leads me to believe that the environment just becomes quite choatic. The globals, however, still have a general consensus (for now) that the system moves SW - WSW - W and eventually make some kind of landfall somewhere on the Gulf Coast as a weakening system.

SF

[wxman57]

Looks like the LLC is near 27.5N/66.5W this morning. It is most definitely moving WSW. You have to remember that it is waiting for the mid-level ridge to builld to its north before picking up speed. There is still a weak upper-level trof off the east U.S. coast, but it is lifting out quickly now. As the ridge builds north of the low today, WSW speed should increase. However, it won't likely reach south Florida until LATE Sunday and Monday morning. With most convection east of the center, the rain will move across south Florida on Monday morning, not Sunday.

[Josephine96]

I didn't agree with the rain being on Sunday either. It sounded way too early. I'd say Monday is a better bet for the storms then Sunday is.

[hial2]

Wxman57 said:. With most convection east of the center, the rain will move across south Florida on Monday morning, not Sunday.[/quote]

Of course, you mean assuming that condtions around the low remain the same right? I think that there is still enough time for this system to organize somewhat..In fact, the last VIS loop intimate that the shear is relaxing a little (compared to yesterday) and the atmosphere surrounding the low is juicing up..and remember it has to cross over the Gulf Stream before getting to Florida