A question for the pro's......

[Johnny]

I bid a farewell to this forum for the rest of hurricane season. Well, of course I am now back. I should learn to keep my mouth shut. lol

Anyways I just have a few questions for the pro's out there. It looks like alot of the models are on track to bring the remnants of Nick into the GOM. In y'alls educated guess........where, how strong and why? Thanks.

Johnny

[Stormsfury]

I don't think it's gonna be a strong event by any means, but yes, the remnants of Nicholas (potential subtropical cyclone) do look to track across Southern Florida and into the Eastern GOM, ala Erika, but not as strong.

[rainydaze]

Here in SoFla, even though the remnants of Nicholas will not be as strong as pre Erika, won't it seem stronger because the pressure gradient will be causing high winds?

[Stormsfury]

Here in SoFla, even though the remnants of Nicholas will not be as strong as pre Erika, won't it seem stronger because the pressure gradient will be causing high winds?

That's the big difference for Southern Florida ... exactly, rainydaze, the pressure gradient as again, the complex low structure looks to be in a subtropical state. As the low moves into the GOM (as progged by the globals), they begin to wind the system down and it begins to basically unravel with time.

[vbhoutex]

Good questions! The former Nicholas looks to be on track to come into the GOM about like Erika, but probably further South. Almost all of the models are calling for this to happen. The differences between the models are basically in the strength. None call for a really strong system, but it looks to be almost a slam dunk that it will happen.

Why? Well SF alluded to the answer in another post. The ridge in the Aatlantic is much stronger than normal for this time of year and further west also. Couple this with another ridge over the SE US and it will swing the disturbance SW and then W around its' Southern and Western periphery, hence the trip to the GOM. How far west depends on how strong the ridge stays and how far West it stretches in about 4 days. Right now most of the models have the Bullseye somewhere around SE TX or SW LA.

Definitely going to be an interesting weekend/week!!! NEVER SAY NEVER WITH THE TROPICS!!!

[wxman57]

It's a good bet this system will track across S. FL and into the GOM then probably toward SE TX to MS. Right now, it's not at all tropical. Frankly, this is about 95-99% remnant frontal low and 1-5% what's left of Nicholas's moisture, so I don't know why the NHC's models keep calling it Nicholas. Anyway, there is most definitely a LLC, but it's cold core, as the plane will find tomorrow. I estimate winds are now about 20-30 mph around the large periphery of the low, and probably near TS-force in squalls 150 miles to the east.

Who knows what the NHC will do with this? I think they may call it a subtropical depression (STD) tomorrow afternoon and put up a TS watch for south Florida at that time (maybe even a warning). South Florida will most likely see NE-E winds 25-40 mph with higher gusts in squalls as this system goes by Sunday night (along with 3-5" rain or more). Inland winds will be less, of course. As the low is not tropical and not likely to become tropical before reaching Florida, it should not intensify much.

The big question is what happens to its structure in the Gulf late Monday through Tuesday. The GFS is hinting at an upper-level high building overhead - a sign it could "go tropical". If convection condenses around the center and the wind field contracts, then we could have a moderate to strong TS before landfall. I wouldn't even rule out a minimal hurricane at this point, as a tropical storm can intensify very rapidly. My gut says winds of 45-60 mph at landfall.

As for the point of landfall, it should track around the periphery of the ridge, probably toward the LA coast. Could go inalnd anywhere from Mobile Bay to the upper TX coast, but I'd pick Vermilion Bay to New Orleans as the prime spot. The forward speed should slow considerably as it rounds the southwest side of the ridge, maybe down to 8-12 kts from 15-20 kts. That could allow for intensification as well.

[Rainband]

Thanks Chris At Least I won't have to deal with ..whatever this becomes

[PTrackerLA]

A tropical storm wouldn't be so bad, it's been pretty dry this fall down here with the exception of one heavy rainfall event a few weeks ago. Fall definately has left the building for the time being

[ColdFront77]

Thanks Chris At Least I won't have to deal with ..whatever this becomes

That confident?