I really can't see....

Anonymous · #1 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Oct 31, 2003 8:30 am

I really can't find any significant shear on this loop that would affect our Nick/Wave/Sub/Low (We could call it any of those)

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

The GFDL: EXACTLY LIKE ERIKA, EXACTLY:

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/gfdltc2.cgi ... =Animation

UKMET: ANDREW's TRACK, but don't expect a category 5!

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/ukmettc2.cg ... =Animation

CMC: The Big Easy

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmctc2.cgi? ... =Animation

AVN: Louisiana as a bit stronger system.

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avntc2.cgi? ... =Animation

I'm starting to get more and more concerned about Louisiana.

Josephine96 · #2 Postby **Josephine96** » Fri Oct 31, 2003 8:32 am

May be Louisiana Floyd.. or Florida. Are those the 2 front runners to get this "thing" "doo hickey" lol..

It would be interesting to see what Nicholas or his remains decide to do. Somebody may get some rain.

Anonymous · #3 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Oct 31, 2003 8:33 am

What bugs me is that just about every model shows a track like that.

Josephine96 · #4 Postby **Josephine96** » Fri Oct 31, 2003 8:37 am

Well.. Not every model can be right lol.. 1 of the models has to be even a little off. Maybe they're all hyped up over a potential November tropical system and they can't compute the information. lol

Ah the joys of the November tropics.

#5 Postby **gboudx** » Fri Oct 31, 2003 8:53 am

I thought we were done for this year. Just goes to show you in ain't over till it's over. What's the prediction for landfall based on the current models? I live South of Baton Rouge and would use this weekend to start getting prepared, just in case.

George

stormchazer · #6 Postby **stormchazer** » Fri Oct 31, 2003 9:22 am

gboudx wrote:I thought we were done for this year. Just goes to show you in ain't over till it's over. What's the prediction for landfall based on the current models? I live South of Baton Rouge and would use this weekend to start getting prepared, just in case.

George

To early to tell but I would make normal prep like you would before the start of hurricane season and keep my eye on how this flushes out.

JCT777 · #7 Postby **JCT777** » Fri Oct 31, 2003 10:23 am

It is too early to tell exactly where this is going to end up or how strong it will be. It is something that GOM coastal residents from eastern TX to the FL panhandle should keep an eye on though - just in case.

#8 Postby **Steve** » Fri Oct 31, 2003 10:23 am

>>I live South of Baton Rouge and would use this weekend to start getting prepared, just in case.

George,

Would that be stocking up on ice, beer and cigs like I'll be doing

? I really can't imagine any ferocious storm out of this. None of the models are indicating any stallout or anything. Even if we were to get something (and FWIW, we're talking 5 days or so out), it would probably be some gusty winds to knock the rest of the leaves off the deciduous trees and maybe 5" of rain. Still, it never hurts to be prepared with some extra gas and batteries. But this won't be one of those possible evacuation storms.

Steve

#9 Postby **gboudx** » Fri Oct 31, 2003 10:36 am

Yeah, I was only thinking along the lines of batteries, water, canned food. Not boarding up windows or filling up some sand bags.

Basically stuff you should have at the beginning of hurricane season that everyone decides to buy once a storm is heading your way.

I'm more worried about potential power outages. Baton Rouge was hit hard by Andrew with the power outages.
George

Josephine96 · #10 Postby **Josephine96** » Fri Oct 31, 2003 10:48 am

Get a few preps done.. just in case this thing decides to cause trouble for somebody a few days down the road.

opera ghost · #11 Postby **opera ghost** » Fri Oct 31, 2003 11:49 am

Anyone figgure Houston has any chance for some nasty thunderstorms out of this one? (I'm not even going to guess a TD) I love fiesty weather

#12 Postby **vbhoutex** » Fri Oct 31, 2003 3:54 pm

It is a definite possibility. But with it 5 days out at least, things could change drastically even though there is no indication that will happen at this time. It mostly depends on 2 things-how strong the disturbance gets and how strong the ridge over the SE stays and how far West it extends-ok 3 things.

Johnny · #13 Postby **Johnny** » Fri Oct 31, 2003 4:01 pm

Southeast, Texas won't see a good cold front in the extended. We are talking at least 9 to 11 days out. What happened to fall?

The Texas Coastline has never seen a storm in the month of November. That would be something for sure.

Josephine96 · #14 Postby **Josephine96** » Fri Oct 31, 2003 4:28 pm

If the Texas coast gets a November storm.. they may even retire it because of it's historical proportions lol.. We shall see.. Amen to the tropics.. Lets see if we get a November storm 1st before we jump on it.

Rainband · #15 Postby **Rainband** » Fri Oct 31, 2003 5:13 pm

Way to early to tell where this..if it even develops... will go. I am guessing LA because of the models but they predicted development in the WC and it never happened. Wait and see :wink:

PTrackerLA · #16 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Fri Oct 31, 2003 5:53 pm

It's disturbing that all the models show a track basically right over me lol. I really can't fathom a strong system out of this and who knows what a November storm in the gulf will look like? I say bring it on because I know it can't be strong...we could use the rain too.

ColdFront77 · #17 Postby **ColdFront77** » Fri Oct 31, 2003 7:15 pm

gboudx wrote:I thought we were done for this year. Just goes to show you in ain't over till it's over. What's the prediction for landfall based on the current models? I live South of Baton Rouge and would use this weekend to start getting prepared, just in case.

George

The Hurricane Season end November 30th, because there has been and will be tropical cyclones developing after October finishes up.

JCT777 wrote:It is something that GOM coastal residents from eastern TX to the FL panhandle should keep an eye on though - just in case.

There is land before the Florida panhandle westward to eastern Texas. It sounds logical and models are indicating a northerly component, probably in response to the surface cold front moving eastward.

The timing of this front will play a role in the eventual turn along with the buidling high in the Atlantic.

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