THe "Big Squeeze" is Put on Nicholas Vortex

#1 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Oct 29, 2003 2:50 pm

Just snapped a new shot of Nicholas and the frontal low south of Bermuda. Satellite loops show the northern vortex (remnants of Nicholas) being elongated NNW-SSE and moving E-ENE as it runs into the cold front. The small vortex associated with the frontal low is moving NNW-N toward Bermuda. It would appear very doubtful that either of these vortices will survive the frontal interaction. However, the remaining energy associated with the upper-level low should track westward toward south Florida and into the Gulf. In fact, that is what a number of models continue to indicate - an upper low moving into the Gulf with a weak surface reflection. Tropical development is unlikely but not impossible.

<img src="http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/disturb.gif">

#2 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Oct 29, 2003 3:08 pm

57 a new low pressure may form in that area and that is what the models may be jumping on.But tropical development from this has IMO a 5% chance.

caneman · #3 Postby **caneman** » Wed Oct 29, 2003 3:29 pm

Think 5% Cycloneye is too low. With so many models jumping on, I give it 33% but increase to better than 50% if they're still with it tomorrow. Wonder if the wave around 35 is a player or will be a player in this?

#4 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Oct 29, 2003 3:39 pm

Yeah, I agree that a new low center will form. As for chances of development, I'd say it's pretty likely that a hybrid low will move into the Gulf. Any such low would almost certainly be classified as a TD or STD by the NHC if there is any convection near the center. So there is probably a considerably higher chance of this system being classified a TD or STD than 5%. But the chances of it becoming a hurricane don't look too good yet.

#5 Postby **Dave C** » Wed Oct 29, 2003 3:40 pm

Awesome map WX, anyone still notice the LLC in NW. Carrabean?. Seems to have become stationary. Located about lat. 15 long. 78

#6 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Oct 29, 2003 4:42 pm

Dave,

That's the same general broad LLC that has been there for a while. No convection at all with it, just a broad circulating area of low-level clouds. Pressures seem to be about 1007-1009 mb down there. That area needs to be watched if any tropical waves move on through in the coming weeks.

JCT777 · #7 Postby **JCT777** » Wed Oct 29, 2003 5:17 pm

Thanks for the update, wxman57.

THe "Big Squeeze" is Put on Nicholas Vortex

THe "Big Squeeze" is Put on Nicholas Vortex

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