Western Atlantic development this week-end??

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
ameriwx2003
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 980
Joined: Tue Jul 22, 2003 10:45 am

Western Atlantic development this week-end??

#1 Postby ameriwx2003 » Wed Oct 29, 2003 6:03 am

The UKMET is picking up on a system developing and moving thru the Florida straits in 144 hours, in fact the GFS and Canadian try to bring some type of system toward Florida as well.
UKMET run:

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/ukmettc2.cg ... =Animation

A few Florida Goverment forecasters are skeptical though:):):) From the Morning Melbourne Florida AFD:

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AGREE WITH TAMPA LONG TERM FORECASTER IN
THAT THE GFS APPEARS TO BE OVERDOING THE TUTT LOW/REMNANTS OF
NICHOLAS. WILL HAVE TO UNDERCUT WIND SPEEDS ONE TO TWO CATEGORIES TO
BRING THEM BACK DOWN TO AROUND 15 MPH. THIS WILL LEAVE ROOM TO GO
EITHER HIGHER/LOWER AS THESE DAYS GET CLOSER AND WHETHER THE GFS IS
VERIFYING OR NOT. WITH A DEEPENING EASTERLY FLOW ONE CAN EXPECT
ISOLATED CONVERGENCE SHOWERS LATE NIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING ALONG
THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN SAINT LUCIE...MARTIN AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES.


Mike
0 likes   

User avatar
JCT777
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6251
Joined: Mon Oct 14, 2002 9:21 am
Location: Spring Mount, PA
Contact:

#2 Postby JCT777 » Wed Oct 29, 2003 9:46 am

I would be more concerned about the storm that used to be Nicholas.
0 likes   

User avatar
stormchazer
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2462
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 12:00 pm
Location: Lakeland, Florida
Contact:

#3 Postby stormchazer » Wed Oct 29, 2003 10:20 am

The models may be off on intitialization as this could be one in the same animal.
0 likes   
The posts or stuff said are NOT an official forecast and my opinion alone. Please look to the NHC and NWS for official forecasts and products.

Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged

Opinions my own.

Rainband

#4 Postby Rainband » Wed Oct 29, 2003 10:52 am

Will be interesting to see the upper flow pattern ..when and if that occurs..to see if the system will be picked up and moved towards florida :eek: or continue..west :eek: If it even verifies. Something to watch at any rate :wink:
0 likes   

ColdFront77

#5 Postby ColdFront77 » Wed Oct 29, 2003 5:33 pm

I agree. The models can be onto something. Last night, Dr. Steve Lyons said that all four tropical cyclones that have made landfall along the United States coastline made landfall along the Florida coast.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot], mcheer23, prairie2, saila, Stratton23, TampaWxLurker, TheBurn, Tireman4 and 124 guests