18Z GFS wants to make JB happy!

[ameriwx2003]

Its only one run of course but I couldn't resist:):):) The 18Z GFS is developing Joe B's end game system for Florida:):).. Like I said its only one run and many days off :). Time will tell:):).

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

[cycloneye]

More runs from GFS are needed to see a trend and we have to see if other models like the EURO,MM5,UKMET are in line with GFS but neverless it is interesting.

[ColdFront77]

Mike and Luis, sure is interesting. Something worth watching during this time in the Hurricane Season.

[Stormsfury]

The fact that it's a dramatic shift from the previous run. It's the first real sign of anything from the GFS but unfortunately, I don't take a lot of stock in many of the 18z GFS runs.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _120.shtml

Again, I can't discount the run yet, but with it there's not much in the way of other model support right now. The upper anticyclonic flow is more over the EPAC right now and northerly upper winds cover that region right now. Also notice deep in the tropical Atlantic a large area of drier air generally heading west which has made its way into the Eastern Caribbean Sea (ULL) which also has me wondering. Will the ULL shear out or continue westward across the Caribbean.

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

SF

[Steve H.]

Not sure which part of this run would make JB happy. Could you please explain? If you're talking about the low in the western Caribbean, it was there on the 12Z run. BTW, the remnants of Nicholas were, according to the HPC 11am TWO, moving WSW at 15 - 20 mph. I checked the satellite pix and could not confirm this, and have been out his afternoon and evening. Maybe the LLC is underneath the convection that is pushing NE?? Anyhow, this (if it is true) may be more of a threat to Florida than the Caribbean low, as a strong ridge is progged to build in the western Atlantic during the week. :-?

[Stormsfury]

Not sure which part of this run would make JB happy. Could you please explain? If you're talking about the low in the western Caribbean, it was there on the 12Z run. BTW, the remnants of Nicholas were, according to the HPC 11am TWO, moving WSW at 15 - 20 mph. I checked the satellite pix and could not confirm this, and have been out his afternoon and evening. Maybe the LLC is underneath the convection that is pushing NE?? Anyhow, this (if it is true) may be more of a threat to Florida than the Caribbean low, as a strong ridge is progged to build in the western Atlantic during the week. :-?

I started a thread earlier with the visible shot of the West Caribbean/West Atlantic and the LLC was clearly visible on visible as a low level swirl around 28ºN, 50ºW moving quite briskly WSW around 15-20 mph. It was quite a swirl though the convection was well removed (to the east) and a lot more to the west.

SF

[ameriwx2003]

Not sure which part of this run would make JB happy. Could you please explain? If you're talking about the low in the western Caribbean, it was there on the 12Z run

Ummmmmmm, the part showing the system coming out of the Caribbean and hitting Florida lol... Not even about to to say this is going to happen since its many day down the road. I was just pointing out that for at least one run Joe B would like the GFS LOL.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _192.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _216.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _240.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _264.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _288.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _312.shtml

[Stormsfury]

Not sure which part of this run would make JB happy. Could you please explain? If you're talking about the low in the western Caribbean, it was there on the 12Z run

Ummmmmmm, the part showing the system coming out of the Caribbean and hitting Florida lol... Not even about to to say this is going to happen since its many day down the road. I was just pointing out that for at least one run Joe B would like the GFS LOL.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _192.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _216.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _240.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _264.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _288.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _312.shtml

LOL ... I got ya! ... I believe JB hates the GFS with a passion but it'll be interesting if he suddenly falls in love with the run. Thanks for sharing that... (Noticed that it indicates the system coming up into South Carolina in 12 days ... LOL).

[Stormsfury]

The EURO briefly shows a small low in the Caribbean on Day 6, and the remnants of Nicholas on Day 3 south of Bermuda.

However, interestingly enough... look at Day 7 in the Central Atlantic.

1010mb closed low.

http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

And the Day 7 Wind speeds at 850mb - 34 kts - interesting
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

SF

[ameriwx2003]

SF.. Yes, JB doesn't have very many nice things to say about the GFS:):):). We will see if the GFS continues to show this or as I suspect will happen the 0Z run will show something entirely different:):):)

[BEER980]

Yea it does show a system hitting south florida and moving up the coast. It might just be for entertainment value though.

[stormchazer]

With the persistent activity down there, you would think something would likely develop.

[Steve H.]

Thanks for the response guys.....this dial up is killing me.

[ameriwx2003]

0Z run keeps the same general trend going. A system in the Caribbean slowly working its way North toward Florida... Its still many days away but at least it something to talk about:):).I will believe it when I see it though:):)

[cycloneye]

Same thinking ameriwx2003 when I see it down there developing then I will believe it but until something develops first all of this is only speculation and I would like to see other models join GFS.