The GFDL does make Nicholas a rather potent storm, but thankfully keeps it well out at sea. While it is forecast to weaken but stay closer to land, I'd rather see it get stronger and stay at sea. As I stated a day ago, it would be nice to see a nice image of a powerful system, but away at sea.
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/gfdltc2.cgi ... =Animation
GFDL....
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
Stormsfury
- Category 5
- Posts: 10549
- Age: 53
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
- Location: Summerville, SC
The GFDL is assuming the following:
1) The shear relaxes (which doesn't appear to be doing so at this time)
2) The storm begins to move within the median flow progged by the GFDL which makes the shear relative (meaning light shear over the system since it would be moving in the same direction as relatively the same speed as the upper winds) and a more favorable environment. Actually the GFDL progs that an upper level high builds over the system.
3) Warm SST's ... the SST's aren't quite as warm as they were, but the GFDL progged path would put it in an area where SST's remain quite warm for a period of time. SST MAP of TEMPS 26ºC or Above.
Not so sure about hurricane status, let alone major hurricane status right now, but it's POSSIBLE not probable at this juncture. The only other supporting scenario is the NOGAPS depiction of Nicholas.
SF
1) The shear relaxes (which doesn't appear to be doing so at this time)
2) The storm begins to move within the median flow progged by the GFDL which makes the shear relative (meaning light shear over the system since it would be moving in the same direction as relatively the same speed as the upper winds) and a more favorable environment. Actually the GFDL progs that an upper level high builds over the system.
3) Warm SST's ... the SST's aren't quite as warm as they were, but the GFDL progged path would put it in an area where SST's remain quite warm for a period of time. SST MAP of TEMPS 26ºC or Above.
Not so sure about hurricane status, let alone major hurricane status right now, but it's POSSIBLE not probable at this juncture. The only other supporting scenario is the NOGAPS depiction of Nicholas.
SF
0 likes
-
Stormsfury
- Category 5
- Posts: 10549
- Age: 53
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
- Location: Summerville, SC
06z GFDL run much more closer to reality this morning. Keeps Nicholas weaker but much more slower than the previous runs.
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/gfdltc2.cgi ... =Animation
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/gfdltc2.cgi ... =Animation
0 likes
-
dixiebreeze
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5140
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 5:07 pm
- Location: crystal river, fla.
-
Stormsfury
- Category 5
- Posts: 10549
- Age: 53
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
- Location: Summerville, SC
dixiebreeze wrote:Weaker and slower = more westerly -- so they say. We'll see.
The GFDL's depiction is much weaker than the 125 mph intensity progged last night, but it's only one of two models that forecasts Nicholas to become a hurricane. One of the CHIPS ensembles shows Nicholas becoming a hurricane, but then again, it was as bad as the GFDL's intensity forecasts last year, taking 30 kt depressions to Cat 5's in 36 hours. But it's still NW/NNW generally speaking. More of a general consensus track wise of a more NNW track. However, most of the globals begin to lose the system moving NW after about 3 days as a weak leftover.
0 likes
-
stormchazer
- Category 5
- Posts: 2462
- Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 12:00 pm
- Location: Lakeland, Florida
- Contact:
Slower...weaker...and I think...dissipating.
0 likes
The posts or stuff said are NOT an official forecast and my opinion alone. Please look to the NHC and NWS for official forecasts and products.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Opinions my own.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Opinions my own.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: 7cardinal, 869MB, abajan, Argcane, Cpv17, gib, hurricane2025, HurricaneFan, hurricanes1234, Ian2401, Kazmit, LAF92, LarryWx, Pelicane, saila, StPeteMike, TampaWxLurker and 139 guests