T numbers for Nicholas 3.5/4.0 and for 94L 1.0

[cycloneye]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Interesting that 94L has risen it's T numbers and comparing the afternoon 18:00 position with this evening one it looks to be moving slowly WSW and that scenario that SF mentioned in another thread is this one as it moves away from Nick it may get less shear so let's see what happens with 94L.

[Valkhorn]

If you can see the LLC for 94L you can bank that it is at least organized and deserves at least a 1.0 on the T numbers, even without convection.

One of the most difficult things for tropical systems to form in the beginnings are LLC's, not convection. Convection thrives on a decent low level center to be really persistent. A system with a weak center and convection is far more likely to die out than a system with a strong center and no convection.

Convection with 94L is only a matter of time, and under the right circumstances it could be a bomb waiting to go off.

However if it wants to make it into the Caribbean it'll have to stay fairly weak so it doesn't get sacrificed to the gods.

[ColdFront77]

Convection thrives on a decent low level center to be really persistent. A system with a weak center and convection is far more likely to die out than a system with a strong center and no convection.

I have brought this up several times, last year (during the 2002 Hurricane Season) and in the last several month.....

A tropical wave that develops into at tropical depression and even a tropical storm can lose it's convection, be downgraded to a tropical wave, (if not a tropical depression) and after at least 12 to 24 hours strengthen into a tropical storm [again] and even a hurricane... because of its continual surface low pressure structure remaining intact for at least a decent portion of the system's existence.

[Valkhorn]

Exactly, and since the circulation is still there it obviously needs to be monitored.

[cycloneye]

Well the T number this morning has dropped for 94L indicating less organization and as long Nicholas is near 94L nothing will happen with it in terms of development is concerned.