Nicholas Before/After CDO Collapse Comparison

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 23007
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Nicholas Before/After CDO Collapse Comparison

#1 Postby wxman57 » Fri Oct 17, 2003 10:44 am

Take a look at the image below. The shot on the left is from 5:15am CDT, showing Nick may well have been approaching hurricane strength with a Dvorak estimate of 4.0. But look at Nick just 5 hours later. Do you see evidence that Nick is strengthening, as per the 10am NHC discussion? No, of course not! The CDO collapsed, sending outflow boundaries to the N, W, and SW of the center. Nick is clearly weaker now than it was 5 hours ago:

<img src="http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/nickbefaft.gif">
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Lowpressure
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2032
Age: 58
Joined: Sun Sep 14, 2003 9:17 am
Location: Charlotte, North Carolina

#2 Postby Lowpressure » Fri Oct 17, 2003 10:48 am

I agree with your analysis. It is clearly collapsing at this time. I prefer visible analysis as opposed to just posting advisories from other sites and hyping things up.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Aquawind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6714
Age: 62
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 10:41 pm
Location: Salisbury, NC
Contact:
Contact Aquawind

#3 Postby Aquawind » Fri Oct 17, 2003 11:15 am

Yep, Nice graphics for a good point.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
JCT777
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6251
Joined: Mon Oct 14, 2002 9:21 am
Location: Spring Mount, PA
Contact:
Contact JCT777

#4 Postby JCT777 » Fri Oct 17, 2003 11:37 am

Thanks for the info wxman57. Maybe I was a bit hasty in thinking that Nicholas would be a hurricane today.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Lowpressure
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2032
Age: 58
Joined: Sun Sep 14, 2003 9:17 am
Location: Charlotte, North Carolina

#5 Postby Lowpressure » Fri Oct 17, 2003 1:12 pm

Looking at the latest sat pics, there is a new explosion of convection. The key is if it is near the LLC?
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: 7cardinal, 869MB, abajan, Argcane, Cpv17, gib, hurricane2025, HurricaneFan, hurricanes1234, Ian2401, Kazmit, LAF92, LarryWx, Pelicane, saila, StPeteMike, TampaWxLurker and 144 guests