11 A.M.-- NICK A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONITE........

[dixiebreeze]

Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisory Number 16


Statement as of 11:00 am AST on October 17, 2003


...Nicholas nearing hurricane strength...

at 11 am AST...1500z...the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was
located near latitude 16.0 north...longitude 48.3 west or about
875 miles...1410 km...east of the Leeward Islands.

Nicholas is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr...
and this motion is expected to continue with some decrease in
forward speed during the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph...110
km/hr...with higher gusts. Additional slow strengthening is
possible during the next 24 hours...and Nicholas could become a
hurricane later today or tonight.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
...280 km from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb...29.23 inches.
Repeating the 11 am AST position...16.0 N... 48.3 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 70 mph. Minimum central pressure... 990 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 PM AST.

Forecaster Beven

[wxman57]

The NHC better look again, that discussion seems to have been written before the CDO collapsed a few hours ago. The center is becoming exposed southwest of a diminishing blob of convection. Nicholas is clearly weakening now.