Interesting Burst of Convection Near Miami

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Steve H.
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Interesting Burst of Convection Near Miami

#1 Postby Steve H. » Fri Oct 17, 2003 6:52 am

Blowup of convection near/in the Florida Straits this morning as reinforcing high pressure builds into the SE US. Not quite worth watching yet with any seriousness, but this is where the UKMET had a low developing the other day (it doesn't show it now; 0z run) but still watching the Caribbean. GFS shows a low near Honduras at 144; the NOGAPS shows one further east near Jamaica; neither impressively. But I'm watching. Wonder what J.B. is thinking this morning :wink: No solid model consensus on anything down there yet. Cheers!!
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Aquawind
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#2 Postby Aquawind » Fri Oct 17, 2003 8:10 am

It will be late next week before any Trocial threats in FL with Fropa expected next week again.
TBW NWS this AM


--EXTENDED (MON-THURS)--
LONG RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW MON AND
TUE FOLLOWED BY A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WED. TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL STAY SOMEWHAT SEASONAL. BEHIND IT TEMPS WILL GO SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO AS WE WILL HAVE RELATIVELY LOW LAYER THICKNESSES
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID ATL STATES.
LOOK FOR LOWS ON THU TO BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD HERE THURSDAY OF
THIS WEEK.

AS FAR AS PRECIP...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE OR
DEEP TO WORK WITH FOR THE APPROACHING FRONT. WENT WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUE AND WED.
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