18z Models suite=65 mph 994 mbs 14.2n-46.7w

[cycloneye]

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/03101618

The BAMM model has changed from earlier runs and now no longer has nick going north but now it has it west and even WSW but let's see at the next run to see if it is consistent and do the same.Also the models start this run at 55 kts (65 mph) and pressure of 994 mbs and T numbers are now 3.5 so it is organizing slowly.

[Valkhorn]

Not surprised. I think unless conditions get better we'll have 90mph tops for its max intensity overall.

Minimal hurricane perhaps and that's about it for Nick. Of course he still could stay at TS strength.

[wxman57]

Actually, BAMM just shows it stationary after 96hrs - only a slight drift for a few tenths of a degree. BAMM may not be a good model to use late in the season when steering currents are weak and changing from day to day in the lower tropics, as it doesn't use any physics to predict such atmospheric changes as approaching trofs.

[Steve H.]

Notice the 12Z GFS now takes Nicholas north; then blocks him, taking him west awfully close to the Leewards at 144 under the western portion of a ridge.

[wxman57]

I guess, if you consider 400-500 nautical miles awfully close.

[Steve H.]

yeah, 400 nm. But still easing toward the west Still don't see good model consensus for the middle of the week next week for the western/NW Caribbean. Though still have a feeling that something big may develop there. NOGAPS toying with that idea; UKMET closer to home and in the short term. We'll see. The other tropical weather features are only mildly interesting. One question though --- since we are still getting eastern atlantic development, will this mean later Caribbean development. Or will the door just shut on the tropics. Gut says that after the troughs push through, the amplification pattern in the east will slow after mid-week and we''l Indian summer it for a coupla weeks. Might be something down there ahead of next wednesday's trough though. But probably not anything big and probably staying south of the Florida peninsula. Cheers!

[Rainband]

As Chris said any action for the Florida peninsula would most likely be south Florida in comparison to say Tampa..watch out steve :o I am safe till next year