I'M NOT SEEING THE TROF THAT'S SUPPOSED.......

[dixiebreeze]

to pick up Nicholas and send him flying to the NE. Can anyone decipher this image:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html

[Steve H.]

The southward extent of that trough is roughly at 25N/40W. TD#19 is pretty much passed that. A new cold front will sweep across Florida tomorrow, but the zonal flow will probably keep it at about the same latitude, amybe a little further south. The key here is that this second trough is being driven by a huge low that will cross through the New England states. However, it will pull NE'ward so I don't expect it to get near the deep tropics. If the weak subtropical ridge holds TD#19 should continue westward, but relatively slowly.

[dixiebreeze]

Steve, good analysis and just what I was thinking, but wasn't sure I analyzed the WV image correctly. Thank you. Just not seeing any trof strong enough at this point to steer TD 19 NNE.

[Steve H.]

Not at this time, and interestingly the 12Z GFS is trending westward, whereas before it took it north, then East

[Steve H.]

Oh BTW Dixie, looked at the latest vis loop. Seems he is getting better organized and may be close to TS status. The overcast is closing around the center. Still some S?SW shear, but light.

[dixiebreeze]

Thanks Steve. The Islands really should keep an eye on this system.