INVEST 93L becoming organised but .... (EDITED)

[Renata]

Latest QUIKScat shows an elongated circulated tilted SW-NE from 8N-10N. with 40 kt winds to the south and east. T-numbers still holding at 1.0. On satellite it does look good with what appears to be banding features.

There is a surface trough in the Central Atlantic extending from 25N 56W to 19N 57W which I believe was the basis for LBAR forecasting such a sharp northward turn along 50W or so. The BAMM and BAMD both call for a gradual north of west movement. (00z Oct 13 run)

Visible pictures this morning should shed some light but I'd venture to say that we have TD#19 (is it 19 already?). I'd also put my kneck on the block to say that despite that trough to the NW it won't turn as sharply north as the LBAR suggests because it is straddling that zone (8N-10N) where curving is slow to occur. It does not come cleanly into the sphere of influence of the Coriolis Force.

I'd say that this is one that the Windward Islands should pay careful attention to. So far this season the majority of formations were at higher latitude and the islands to the south were spared. This one turns the tables.

My $0.2 worth.

Renata

[wxman57]

I agree it's looking like a TD now. True, the Windward Islands should keep a close watch on it. However, with no strong ridge to its north, there's a good chance it'll turn north well east of the Islands. The turn may be more gradual, however.

[cycloneye]

And 57 more gradual as the low is at a very low latitud and that may be problematic for the islands unless it makes a sharp turn to the north.