My opinion...

[Josephine96]

Ok.. I got tired of just making reply's so here's a real post for the 1st time in a few days. lol

Mindy is a developing tropical storm and even though she is moving NW and not W or WNW the east coast should not officially ride her off till she's dead.

Mindy could surprise some people. It's been an entertaining hurricane season and we may be getting 1 last late season brigade of storms if the Cape Verde wave stays together and the GOM blob that I am hearing so much about all of a sudden.

It's been a busy season. Lets' see how the last 6 weeks or so of it go.

[JtSmarts]

Hey John, I think that Mindy and the potential subtropical Nick will be fish. I think one more major hurricane will form by Nov 30, not sure if any more storms will affect the US.

[Josephine96]

1 more major.. It could happen.. we shall see..

[wxman57]

I agree.

[stormssteve]

For the 1st time in a while ,the models have been right on all season.Looks like a fish.

[Josephine96]

Mindy= fish.. we shall see..

[ColdFront77]

National Hurricane Center's Official 3 Day Forecast, issued at 11:00pm Eastern:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT ... 10258W.gif


National Hurricane Center's Official 5 Day Forecast, issued at 11:00pm Eastern:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT ... 0258W5.gif

[Rainband]

You might be interested in a note I got from Chris Landsea at NOAA. Here is what Chris said:

<i>As we've reached the 10th of October, there may be some folks out
there wondering if the threat from any strong hurricanes may be
over for the Atlantic basin this season. (I'm sure there's many
people in Bermuda, the U.S. mid-Atlantic states and Canada that are
hoping the season's over.) However, <b> i think that the evidence
suggests that we will still have a low-latitude hurricane - likely
to be a major (Category 3, 4 or 5) - originating out of the Caribbean
before the season is over.</b>

The reason for suggesting that we'll have yet another major
hurricane comes from a few lines of evidence. The first is that
since 1995 (when Goldenberg et al. suggest we've gone back to an
"active" major hurricane regime), we've had a late season (October
to mid-November) major hurricane every year originate out of the
Caribbean, except for during the severe El Nino of '97:

1995 - Opal and Roxanne
1996 - Lili
1997 - (None)
1998 - Mitch
1999 - Lenny
2000 - Keith
2001 - Michelle
2002 - Lili

There is no El Nino this year and the SSTs are once again quite
warm in the main development region, including the Caribbean Sea:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/h ... tlsst.html

Thus we have both persistence of the last few years along with
large scale SSTs in support of such a system developing.

Another reason for expecting the mid/late October to early November
period to be active is the <b> likely enhancing phase of the Madden-Julian
Oscillation (MJO). </b>While the convective part of the MJO is a bit
difficult to discern in this hemisphere, the changes in the upper
tropopheric circulation patterns can be seen. For example, the
following web site shows a time series of the 200 mb subtropical ridge
strength:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/h ... _index.htm
l

What shows up strikingly here is the 50-55 day oscillation in the
ridge strength, with the last 20-25 days showing a relatively weaker
200 mb ridge at low latitudes. If the 50-55 day MJO holds, then
an enhanced 200 mb ridge (along with weaker vertical shear) should
be in place from mid-October through about mid-November in the MDR.


The timing of this intraseasonal oscillation coupled with the long-
term enhanced conditions should produce a major hurricane originating
out of the Caribbean sometime between next week and mid-November.
Unfortunately, if this does occur, the results could be quite
devastating since Caribbean hurricanes almost invariably hit land
and impact quite a few people.


best regards,
chris</i>

Thanks for the heads up Wxman57 :o

[Aquawind]

Another Major. :o good reading..Thanks for sharing wxman57

[BEER980]

Josephine96 could you please explain why "the east coast should not officially ride her off till she's dead." What are your thoughts on movement and strength?

[Josephine96]

It's just the old saying not to rule off a storm till it is dead.. I think it will be a fish.. It's just the thought of it being so close..

I think she'll lose her westerly component and move due north in a day or 2 though

[weatherluvr]

What was the latest date in the year for an EC strike?

Maybe somebody knows the answer to this, but I'm going to research this myself as well.

Update: the latest I could find was Hazel, Oct. 15, 1954.

[Air Force Met]

I think the latest date is the 1925 storm...which was Nov 29th in NC. It was a Cat 2. Then there was Gorden hitting Florida on the 8th of Nov in '94, and a storm that mad landfall in 1861 as a Cat 1 on Nov 1st as a Cat 1. Also, A Cat 1 in NC in 1899.

[southerngale]

Very interesting wxman57 :o

[Stormsfury]

I think the latest date is the 1925 storm...which was Nov 29th in NC. It was a Cat 2. Then there was Gorden hitting Florida on the 8th of Nov in '94, and a storm that mad landfall in 1861 as a Cat 1 on Nov 1st as a Cat 1. Also, A Cat 1 in NC in 1899.

1925 storm in NC originally developed in the Western Caribbean.
http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Trop ... s/1925.jpg

The year of 1925 (only 2 TC's in this year - currently AOML/HRD are reanalyzing the 1910's, 1920's and 1930's such as was done with 1851-1910. The results will be interesting.)
http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Trop ... s/1925.txt

Interestingly enough, a can of worms was opened the other day so to speak in regards to the 1994 Christmas Storm which struck New England on the 24th of December, and is up for review for inclusion into the tropical cyclone database according to Chris Landsea at AOML (through email contact) as a potential subtropical cyclone.

Here's the thread (in the Winter Weather Forum) for more details and links regarding to that storm.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=16731