"NICHOLAS" UP NEXT -- SE OF LI OR GOM?........

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dixiebreeze
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"NICHOLAS" UP NEXT -- SE OF LI OR GOM?........

#1 Postby dixiebreeze » Fri Oct 10, 2003 9:10 pm

Things sure are heating up all of a sudden, along the Atlantic Coast and even the GOM is looking pretty suspicious. There is a low pressure area near the tip of LA and a lot of very persistent convection in the central gulf.
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#2 Postby Stormsfury » Fri Oct 10, 2003 9:11 pm

Stick a fork in the GOM. That's a baroclinically driven area of thunderstorms (the same complex that drenched Southeast TX yesterday).

This is also where the GFS has had problems with convective feedback issues with this same complex of thunderstorms.

SF
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#3 Postby Stormsfury » Fri Oct 10, 2003 9:16 pm

You can see on this image how the dry air just behind the GOM complex would prevent any tropical development.

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

Current streamline analysis.

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/surfa ... mlines.gif

Closer view of the GOM convective system. The area is being induced by an ULL in Eastern TN and divergent shear aloft.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/SAT_US/anim8wv.html
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Josephine96

#4 Postby Josephine96 » Fri Oct 10, 2003 9:47 pm

Maybe 1 last pulse of tropical activity before seasons end. We are certainly going down the list now.

We've got Mindy and she is most likely a fish.. though I wouldn't ride her off only because she is close to the East Coast.

Another case of wait till she's north of you.
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#5 Postby Steve H. » Fri Oct 10, 2003 9:52 pm

Remember its only October 10th. I expect something out of the western Caribbean before the season is out. Could be a week or two away yet - but I expect something out of there. So this is not the last waltz yet :wink:
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#6 Postby Rainband » Sat Oct 11, 2003 4:59 pm

Stormsfury wrote:Stick a fork in the GOM. That's a baroclinically driven area of thunderstorms (the same complex that drenched Southeast TX yesterday).

This is also where the GFS has had problems with convective feedback issues with this same complex of thunderstorms.

SF
So no more GOM development for the rest of the season?? Are you certain?? :wink: Or just in the short term :?:
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#7 Postby bahamaswx » Sat Oct 11, 2003 5:21 pm

GOM looks to be dead as a doorknob (or something) for the rest of the season.
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#8 Postby Toni - 574 » Sat Oct 11, 2003 5:29 pm

Taking into consideration that we still have about 6 more weeks of this season left, plus history reminds us of what can happen this time of the year, I would err on the side of caution here and say that it is a real possibility that we may see something before the season is finished. Hope not as the late season canes from the Caribbean can be pretty nasty!
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Rainband

#9 Postby Rainband » Sat Oct 11, 2003 5:42 pm

bahamaswx wrote:GOM looks to be dead as a doorknob (or something) for the rest of the season.
Thanks for the info :)
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#10 Postby Stormsfury » Sat Oct 11, 2003 6:14 pm

Rainband wrote:
Stormsfury wrote:Stick a fork in the GOM. That's a baroclinically driven area of thunderstorms (the same complex that drenched Southeast TX yesterday).

This is also where the GFS has had problems with convective feedback issues with this same complex of thunderstorms.

SF
So no more GOM development for the rest of the season?? Are you certain?? :wink: Or just in the short term :?:


Just in regards to the GOM thunderstorm activity which so deluged southerngale, Ticka, and vbhoutex a couple of days ago.

SF
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#11 Postby Rainband » Sat Oct 11, 2003 6:39 pm

Thanks :wink:
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#12 Postby AussieMark » Sat Oct 11, 2003 7:06 pm

Toni - 574 wrote:Taking into consideration that we still have about 6 more weeks of this season left, plus history reminds us of what can happen this time of the year, I would err on the side of caution here and say that it is a real possibility that we may see something before the season is finished. Hope not as the late season canes from the Caribbean can be pretty nasty!


I agree late season caribbean storms have been nasty in recent years.

1995-Roxanne
1996-Lili
1998-Mitch
1999-Lenny
2000-Keith
2001-Iris,Michelle
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