NHC is funny

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6684
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

NHC is funny

#1 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Oct 10, 2003 4:22 pm

Throughout the entire season the NHC has refused to classify
disturbances into TDs because they couldn't find a closed low level circulation even though it look that way via visible satellite. But this time around they decide to do it because of low pressure reading alone yet they couldn't find one.
It's very obvious this system does not "currently" have a closed LLC.
It looks like a wave to me. Go figure.
0 likes   

User avatar
vbhoutex
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 29113
Age: 73
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
Location: Cypress, TX
Contact:

#2 Postby vbhoutex » Fri Oct 10, 2003 5:05 pm

Read the following discussion, direct from NHC and then tell me what is funny about the fact they named it.

A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING THE WEATHER SYSTEM
NEAR THE NORTHEAST TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS AFTERNOOON.
IT REPORTED 1004 MB SURFACE PRESSURE AND A 49 KNOT-WIND SPEED ABOUT
40 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE AIRCRAFT DID NOT REPORT A
CLOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT THE PROXIMITY OF LAND MAY HAVE
PREVENTED DOING SO. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NOT-VERY-IMPRESSIVE
CLOUD PATTERN...BUT A 1004 MB SURFACE PRESSURE IS THE MOTIVATION
FOR CALLING THIS SYSTEM A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS PRESENT. THE
ADVISORY INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE ABOVE.

You will note that they say that the proximity to land may have prevented them closing off the low. In other words, since they are not allowed to fly over land to take readings in these storms due to the possibility of rough weather making it difficult and dangerous for the plane to be over land. They would have encountered mountains in the 5-10,000 range flying the normal routes they fly. NOT a safe situation for the Recon team or those below.

Besides that there are several other parameters that are used for determining whether to name tropical disturbances. Apparently this system has met enough of those parameters to be named. And as I am sure you know visible satellite images are not how they determine whether to name a sytem as a tropical storm.
0 likes   
Skywarn, C.E.R.T.
Please click below to donate to STORM2K to help with the expenses of keeping the site going:
Image

Rainband

#3 Postby Rainband » Fri Oct 10, 2003 6:04 pm

Very good points david :wink:
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: ElectricStorm, IsabelaWeather, Kazmit, LAF92, REDHurricane, Sps123, Stratton23, Ulf and 47 guests