CARIBBEAN INVEST DOWN TO 1007 AND CV WAVE.......

[dixiebreeze]

IS NOTED, TOO, IN THE NHC 2 P.M. DISCUSSION:

SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS CENTERED NEAR THE EASTERN TIP OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATE THAT THE
SYSTEM IS FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AT ANY TIME. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE
THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
TODAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 67W/68W SOUTH OF 25N MOVING WEST 10 KT. 1007 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IN THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18.5N CONVECTION AT
THIS TIME...NUMEROUS STRONG COVERS PUERTO RICO AND COASTAL
WATERS FROM 17.5N TO 19.5N BETWEEN 66W AND 68W. ISOLATED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG TO THE SOUTH IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS
ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 65W AND 69W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IN THE ATLANTIC
WATERS FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 65W AND 72W.

TROPICAL WAVES/ITCZ...
TROPICAL WAVE SHOWS UP REALLY WELL IN THE VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON ALONG 36W SOUTH OF 20N. 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 14N ALONG THIS WAVE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FROM A CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 33N24W TO 25N26W TO 22N34W TO ANOTHER
CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 18N39W TOWARD NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA
SHOULD IMPART SOME SHEAR TO THIS WAVE...POSSIBLY NOT ALLOWING
IT TO DEVELOP FULLY. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR EVERYWHERE
FROM 10N TO 27N BETWEEN 36W AND 60W.

[wxman57]

The only problem is that a cyclone (notice they didn't say depression) requires an LLC. Recon is finding only SE-S wnds at 20-30 kts throughout the disturbance. I would disagree that it looks better organized than yesterday, or even this morning.

[stormchazer]

The convection is getting quite elongated and looks like a lot of outflow restriction to the west. This system may have a very short life. Looks like a very tight gradient between the front and the Bermuda High with a fairly strong southeastly to southwestly flow. The system may get squeezed before anything develops.