72 hours - EC FL!!

[CocoaBill]

GFS - may be over doing it a bit? :?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml

[Rainband]

GFS is one of those models we take with a grain of salt. In our local discussion it always spins up a low here or there that our NWS mets usually for good reason ignore. If the other models start hinting at something along tese lines..then I'd pay attention but with the current flow pattern the CONUS seems safe from whatever spins up near PR.

[Rainband]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 091807
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
210 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2003

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH STILL ON SCHEDULE TO DEEPEN
AND CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. INTO SATURDAY...THEN GRADUALLY
DRIFT INTO THE ATLC SUN/COLUMBUS DAY AS ZONAL FLOW BECOMES
REESTABLISHED. THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA WILL REMAIN S OF THE
CUTOFF...TRANSLATING INTO A BRIEF INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE AS
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES BY. EXPECT SOMEWHAT CLOUDIER CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...BUT NOT TOTAL GLOOM. DRIER CONDS
SHOULD RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.MODEL ANALYSIS...ONCE AGAIN...THE GFS PARTS WAYS WITH THE
ETA/NGM/CANADIAN BY MAKING IT'S PRIMARY LOW IN THE NE GULF RATHER
THAN DEVELOPING THE INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THIS IS IN ERROR FOR MANY REASONS...INCLUDING PLACEMENT OF LOW NEAR
BEST UPPER DIFFLUENT AXIS (ALONG THE SE COAST) AND LOCATION OF SFC
LOW RELATIVE TO 500 MB VORT MAX (GFS HAS IT TO THE WEST).

EARLIER NCEP MODEL DISCUSSION ATTRIBUTED THE GFS SPIN-UP SOLUTION
TO GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK ISSUES...AND BELIEVE THIS CONTINUES AT 12Z.
IN SHORT...WILL CONTINUE OUR CURRENT FCST TREND AND DISREGARD THE
GFS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SAT)...MOISTURE INCREASES ABOVE 500 MB LATE
TONIGHT AND FRI...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO TRANSLUCENT TO OPAQUE
CI...ESP FRI WITH MOST EXPECTED FROM TAMPA BAY N. PCPN CHANCES AT A
PREMIUM AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LACKING AND FLOW BELOW 500 GENERALLY
NW. LOWER LEVEL (SUB 500 MB) MOISTURE TENDS TO DEEPEN FRI NIGHT/SAT
AS HEIGHTS FALL AND TEMPS ALOFT COOL. THE RESULTING INSTABILITY
WILL SET OFF SCT MAINLY AFTN CONVECTION SAT. TEMPS FRI WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THIS AFTN WITH CI CANOPY...AND ABOUT THE SAME SAT WITH
QUICK-FORMING LATE MORNING CONVECTIVE CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT - THURS)...THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS SLOWS THE
SFC TROUGH DOWN A LITTLE...PUSHING IT THROUGH THE AREA BY 12Z MON
BUT KEEPING IT IN S FL THRU 12Z WED. THIS KEEPS SOME MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA SOUTH THRU TUES. A SFC HI
BEGINS TO PUSH IN ON WED WITH A E TO NE FLOW DEVELOPING INTO THU.
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ON THU EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO START COMING UP
SLIGHTLY THEN.

.MARINE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT E INTO FRI NIGHT...THEN BACK TO
THE N AND EVENTUALLY NW OVER THE WEEKEND AS SFC LOW TAKES OVER ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. NO HIGHLITES EXPECTED.

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 072/086 072/086 -224
FMY 071/088 071/087 -124
GIF 072/087 072/086 1224
SRQ 072/086 072/086 -124
BKV 067/085 067/085 1224


.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

[stormchazer]

Well timed Rainband. Good info.

[Rainband]

Well timed Rainband. Good info.

Thank you

[Josephine96]

Nice football photo.. I guess rain band is a Bucs fan.. Go Dolphins over here..

[CocoaBill]

GFS really blew it as expected...........

[Rainband]

Nice football photo.. I guess rain band is a Bucs fan.. Go Dolphins over here..

You guessed correctly!! Thats Mike Alstott