12/56W

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Vortex
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12/56W

#1 Postby Vortex » Tue Oct 07, 2003 8:55 am

This system is showing signs of development this morning. Those residents in the islands west to Puerto Rico need to keep a close eye on this developing storm. Will post a complete update later...
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Steve H.
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#2 Postby Steve H. » Tue Oct 07, 2003 9:44 am

It will be interesting to see how this evolves during the week. I have low confidence in the models right now, as some show a developing system (albeit weak) going form the present location northwest toward Puerto Rico, then NNW from there. Think this system may be a bit slower to evolve than that, as an ULL to its west slowly retrogrades west and fills, while a trough far the its NW eventually pulls out. I don't believe the trough will have any great influence on this system as it should stay well to its north. The ULL will be the prime influence as well as a high building to the NE. Not sure where it will go yet. So we watch
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#3 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 07, 2003 9:54 am

Wind shear looks stronger today, and the disturbance looks less organized to me. But the wind shear may relax in 36-48 hours as it nears Puerto Rico. That would be the window for development.
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ColdFront77

#4 Postby ColdFront77 » Tue Oct 07, 2003 7:42 pm

There is a lot of convection east and northeast of 12°N 56°W now; this convection has persisted. There is a chance for the wind shear to decrease in the next 24 to 36 hours is there, isn't it?
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