KATE #42 - DISCUSSION

[AussieMark]

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WTNT41 KNHC 060259
TCDAT1
HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 42
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN OCT 05 2003

THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR
REASONING. KATE HAS MADE A SLIGHT NORTHEASTWARD JOG...BUT THIS IS
BELIEVED TO BE A TEMPORARY MOTION AND A TURN BACK TO THE NORTH OR
NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO RESUME SHORTLY...SO THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/10. KATE IS CAUGHT BETWEEN AN AMPLIFYING
LARGE-SCALE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH TO
THE WEST. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEMS SHOULD GRADUALLY ACCELERATE KATE NORTHWARD
AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD.

THE INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
IS BEGINNING TO AFFECT KATE. THE CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT HAS ERODED AND THE EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD-COVERED. CONTINUED
SLOW WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AND BY 36 HOURS KATE WILL BE OVER COLD
WATER NORTH OF THE GULFSTREAM...AND ALSO LIKELY BECOMING ENTANGLED
WITH A COLD FRONT. FULL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED BY 48
HOURS...AND PERHAPS EVEN BY 36 HOURS WHEN THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED
WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0300Z 33.0N 56.1W 80 KT
12HR VT 06/1200Z 35.0N 55.8W 70 KT
24HR VT 07/0000Z 39.1N 54.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 07/1200Z 44.3N 50.8W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 08/0000Z 50.0N 44.4W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 09/0000Z 59.0N 25.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 10/0000Z 60.0N 5.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 11/0000Z...EXTRATROPICAL EAST OF THE GREENWICH MERIDIAN