5 PM EDT UPDATE on the Atlantic and east Pac tropics....

[WXBUFFJIM]

In the Atlantic, Kate and Larry are still the top tropical weather stories and both have weakened today. At 5 PM EDT, Hurricane Kate was centered about 485 miles east of Bermuda. Bermuda is out of the woods and Kate will not affect Bermuda. Kate is currently moving north at 10 mph and that direction is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed over the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next 24 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward 35 miles from the center while tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles. Estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb or 28.82 inches.

Meanwhile tropical storm Larry remains a storm at 5 PM EDT. But it sure looks very much like a depression at this stage of the game. Convection has flared near the center recently though. However since Larry is over land, it should be downgraded later this evening if it hasn't already done so. In the meantime, tropical storm warnings remain in effect from Veracruz to Ciudad Del Carmen on Mexicans gulf coast. Those warnings should be discontinued shortly as Larry weakens further. At 4 PM CDT, Larry is centered about 45 miles east of Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. Larry has been drifting erratically over the past several hours. However a south and southwest drift is expected over the next 24 hours, thus Larry is moving further inland.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph with higher gusts. Weakening is expected as Larry is over land and thus Larry is expected to be a tropical depression later this evening, likely by 7 PM CDT. Tropical storm force winds extend outward 45 miles from the center. So the tropical storm force wind field is strinking as well. Minimum central pressure is 1002 mb or 29.59 inches. The big story is not wind or storm surge, it's torrential rains and up to another foot is possible in inland southeastern Mexico over the next day or so. Thus devastating flash floods and mudslides remain likely.

Meanwhile in the eastern pacific, Hurricane Nora has weakened to 90 mph with higher gusts. Minimum central pressure is 976 mb or 28.82 inches. Hurricane Nora is expected to weaken further and turn towards the northeast into southern Baja as a tropical storm over the next couple of days. There could still be heavy rains and flooding in southern Baja from Nora even though winds and surge are not expected to be a huge concern. Remnant moisture from Nora could hit New Mexico and west Texas by the end of this upcoming week.

Meanwhile Hurricane Olaf hasn't changed in strength over the past several hours. However a reconnaissance Aircraft is enroute to investigate Hurricane Olaf even as we speak. At 5 PM EDT 2 PM PDT, Hurricane warnings remain in effect for the Pacific coast of Mexico from Punta San Telmo to San Blas. This does include Islas Marias, which hasn't been mentioned earlier. However Islas Marias is included in the Hurricane Warning. Meanwhile a tropical storm warnings remains in effect for the Pacific coast of Mexico from Punta San Telmo south to Lazaro Cardenas. A hurricane warning means hurricane conditions are expected within 24 hours or less. A trppical storm warnings means tropical storm conditions are expected within 24 hour or less.

Watches and warnings maybe extended in the southern Baja tonight and along the west Mexican coast as well. All interests in these areas need to monitor Olaf very carefully, not to mention Nora as well for the Baja.

At 2 PM PDT 5 PM EDT, Olaf was centered 90 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Olaf is moving toward the northwest at 12 mph and this general motion is expected to continue. However any deviation to the right of the expected forecast track will take Olaf into the Pacific coast of Mexico just north of Manzanillo, thus the hurricane warnings are in place. However at this time, the track will parallel the Pacific coast of Mexico. Huge effects will include flooding and mudslides from heavy rains, winds well over tropical storm force and large battering waves along the coast. So problems will still occur.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph with higher gusts. Slow strenghtening is forecast over the next day or so. A hurricane hunter plane is also enroute to investigate this system.

Minimum central pressure is 987 mb or 29.15 inches.

More updates on Olaf throughout the evening and a complete update on the tropics will happen later this evening. Still very busy out there.

Jim

[Rainband]

Thanks for the info JIM