LARRY #15 - ADVISORY

[AussieMark]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 050832
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LARRY ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT SUN OCT 05 2003

...SMALL BUT TENACIOUS LARRY STILL OFFSHORE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT
ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LARRY WAS LOCATED
BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE
93.5 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES...110 KM...NORTHEAST OF COATZACOALCOS
MEXICO. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 MILES...20 TO 25 KM FROM
THE COAST.

LARRY HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR TODAY. THIS
WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF LARRY INLAND LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS MAINLY OVER WATER IN A SMALL AREA TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CENTER. LARRY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS
996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES IS ESTIMATED TO BE OCCURRING AT THIS
TIME.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND
MUDSLIDES.


REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...18.4 N... 93.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTH NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 996 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM
CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA