000
WTNT41 KNHC 050834
TCDAT1
HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN OCT 05 2003
AFTER A LITTLE BIT OF EROSION ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...LATEST
IMAGES INDICATE THAT KATE HAS REDEVELOPED A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION
SURROUNDING THE EYE. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN SUGGESTS
THAT WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 95 KNOTS. KATE SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN
GRADUALLY AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER
WATER.
THERE IS NOTHING NEW TO REPORT ON THE TRACK. KATE IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THEN BECOME
STEERED BY THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH. IT SHOULD THEN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY 72
HOURS.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/0900Z 30.6N 55.8W 95 KT
12HR VT 05/1800Z 31.3N 56.6W 95 KT
24HR VT 06/0600Z 34.0N 57.0W 90 KT
36HR VT 06/1800Z 37.0N 56.0W 85 KT
48HR VT 07/0600Z 42.0N 53.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 08/0600Z 53.0N 39.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 09/0600Z 60.0N 20.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 10/0600Z 60.0N 5.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
KATE #39 - DISCUSSION
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AussieMark
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KATE #39 - DISCUSSION
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