Larry made landfall...

[Anonymous]

Has Larry made landfall? This loop shows an eye-like feature spin onto the coast, and while the convection is rather skimpy, it could still have the appearance of a weak hurricane. Is this true, see the loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[john186292]

hi Floydbuster,
people see your title, and assume it is over with.
To get them to read post, might edit title into what your post seeks, a question about whether larry is ashore or not.
Cheers,
john

[JetMaxx]

"Larry coasts ashore in Mexico with a wimper" (as mild and predictable as my great uncle Larry

[weatherluvr]

Larry may have come ashore with a whimper as far as the winds, but they've got some big-time problems down there with all the rain that's going to get squeezed out of this one, especially in the mountains. I sincerely hope we don't see another Mitch/Allison situation.

[JetMaxx]

Actually, according to recon, Larry is still a short distance offshore (per 2 a.m. advisory)....but is weakening due to land interaction...central pressure is up to 999 mb/ 29.50".

I agree heavy rainfall potential is by far the greatest threat....but if Larry moves southward quickly as I'm thinking once onshore, maybe flooding won't be too severe....at least I hope not.

[john186292]

does contact with land cause a storm to "get pulled ashore" or "slow down" ? I have seen both claimed.

[vbhoutex]

Larry is currently still just offshore and expected to drift onshore at around 2 mph later today. The eyewall may have wobbled onshore for a while but "officially" Larry has still not made landfall.

Indeed the biggest problem Larry poses is the 8"-12" of rainfall expected which is likely to cause flash flooding and mudslides across the Isthmus of Tehuantepac as he moves to the EPAC.

[wrkh99]

I would think that they would see more rain than 8 to 12 based on the fact that the storm is a very slow mover.

[wxman57]

First of all, you really can't use IR imagery to locate the center of a tropical depression, storm, or even a weak hurricane with an accuracy of less than about 50 miles unless the system lacks convection and you can see the low-level spiral. I looked at that loop and the center is not readily apparent. I can guess that it might be near the Mexican coast, but that's based on persistence.

Second, I think it's generally bad to refer to landfall as being when the center crosses the coast. I generally try to avoid that practice. For large storms, it gives our customers the wrong idea. Larry has been making landfall for several days. Large hurricanes may produce tropical storm force winds at the coast as much as 12 hours ahead of the center. Let's say you're expecting landfall of the center a major storm ar 7pm. People may assume that they have all day to get ready, evacuate, etc., but squalls may already be moving inland with TS-force winds by sunrise that day. I prefer to concentrate on the arrival of the effects of a storm, not the center. Perhaps there should be a forecast for when TS-force winds are to arrive on the coast as well as when the center is expected to reach the coast?

[ColdFront77]

The forecast technically does indicate when highest maximum sustained winds and gusts will occur for a certain area with an approaching tropical storm or hurricane.

Wxman57, I agree with your point 100%. The "center making landfall" is said more often than, "the feeder bands are moving ashore."