Philosophy of science scholars have documented that bias from subconscious sources can alter judgement, however much the scientist tries to be coldly objective.
This is why we demand double blind studies. Neither the experiment staff, nor the result writer, know who got what pill.
One expects that when the NHC is in the path of a cat. five, fear will change the forcast track they draw.
Fear for their family that is on the road travelling north. Fear for their nearby homes.
Lovers of storms would draw tracks that veer toward the NHC.
The Director who makes the final track choice, would be the final -removed- source. All a result of subconscious effects.
No human scientist is above this influence, no matter how much you want to worship him. (I have seen a lot of worship on this board.LOL I do it myself, so I understand.)
Subconscious bias is well documented, so don't even try to argue that point.
Also, storms can cause outages from unexpected freak accidents to the best of backups. Multimillion dollar "uninterruptable power systems" at one airport failed, due to lightning.
We cannot afford to have NHC drop out of contact during hurricanes.
Move it to Colorado, and staff will never worry about family evacuating, family on the road north. In Florida, worried NHC staff may wishcast the track away from Florida, when it is really coming right at Florida.
John New Orleans
MOVE NHC TO COLORADO-AVOID FEARCASTING,OUTAGES,SAVE BIG $$
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john186292
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MOVE NHC TO COLORADO-AVOID FEARCASTING,OUTAGES,SAVE BIG $$
Last edited by john186292 on Sun Oct 05, 2003 7:10 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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JetMaxx
The NHC has always had a back-up system in place in case the Miami area is struck by a major hurricane. During hurricane Andrew, the warnings and advisory capacity was shifted from NHC in Coral Gables, FL to the HPC in Camp Springs, MD.
NHC should remain exactly where it is.....just as SPC is located in Norman, Oklahoma...where it should be.
NHC should remain exactly where it is.....just as SPC is located in Norman, Oklahoma...where it should be.
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AussieMark
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john186292
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Hi Jett, how are things ?
I would say.. repeated moves by NHC to evade storms, cost more than one move to Colorado.
Also, fearcasting would happen in the days leading up to the move.
Also, fearcasting would happen in the Myland locus, as staff feared for the evacuating family members on the road. And fear for their Fla. homes.
Also, Colorado site would save the money now spent keeping the Marlynd backup in repair and stocked with snack machines full of Fritos to feed the staff LOL.
Backup facilities tend to have fewer gadgets, of lower quality, not kept in good repair, that develop bugs during years of low usage, and which do not get every software update because of harried staff having no time to do everything, and because of endless budget cuts.
Also, staff would have thinking disrupted during the travel. They would waste precious time on attending to facets of the trip, no matter how well preplanned. Wondering about the pilot/driver, getting lastminute items, going over checklists, dealing with fenderbender and road hazards to the plane, downbursts once aloft, etc. All absent if in Colorado.
Some input from sources (and output) would be fragile ... or nonexistant...during travel time.
Even now, with the staff relaxed at NHC, this total layman spots many errors in the alerts it puts out. eg, the homepage during Isabel had old discussions pasted up under current time chops. Repeatedly! Maps still have no time chop on the homepage. Even after I nudged them to add it.(on the map, but not homepage, whereas all alerts do).
I shudder to think of the error rate after a hasty move to rickety facilities, with a staff worried about their Fla. home in 210 mph winds.
BUT mainly, move it to avoid fearcasting in the days before evacuating, as all watch the cat five aim at Florida.
OR, move just to save tax money.
john New Orleans
I would say.. repeated moves by NHC to evade storms, cost more than one move to Colorado.
Also, fearcasting would happen in the days leading up to the move.
Also, fearcasting would happen in the Myland locus, as staff feared for the evacuating family members on the road. And fear for their Fla. homes.
Also, Colorado site would save the money now spent keeping the Marlynd backup in repair and stocked with snack machines full of Fritos to feed the staff LOL.
Backup facilities tend to have fewer gadgets, of lower quality, not kept in good repair, that develop bugs during years of low usage, and which do not get every software update because of harried staff having no time to do everything, and because of endless budget cuts.
Also, staff would have thinking disrupted during the travel. They would waste precious time on attending to facets of the trip, no matter how well preplanned. Wondering about the pilot/driver, getting lastminute items, going over checklists, dealing with fenderbender and road hazards to the plane, downbursts once aloft, etc. All absent if in Colorado.
Some input from sources (and output) would be fragile ... or nonexistant...during travel time.
Even now, with the staff relaxed at NHC, this total layman spots many errors in the alerts it puts out. eg, the homepage during Isabel had old discussions pasted up under current time chops. Repeatedly! Maps still have no time chop on the homepage. Even after I nudged them to add it.(on the map, but not homepage, whereas all alerts do).
I shudder to think of the error rate after a hasty move to rickety facilities, with a staff worried about their Fla. home in 210 mph winds.
BUT mainly, move it to avoid fearcasting in the days before evacuating, as all watch the cat five aim at Florida.
OR, move just to save tax money.
john New Orleans
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Downdraft
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Fault in Logic
If what you premise is true then it should show in the NSSL or SPC. Look at the forecasting during the Moore tornado and you'll see they stayed on the money. I think these dedicated scientists at SPC or NHC understand the danger they face. We would also have to move many of the NWFSO's that are positioned in harms way everyday for severe weather events.
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Stormsfury
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IMHO, the agencies - NHC, SPC are fine where they are. They have backups and backup plans of action just in case the worst happens. At SPC, in Norman, OK, the research division and not to mention storm chasers are located right where they should be since the most research and the most severe storms occur in that portion of the country.
SF
SF
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Steve Cosby
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Stormsfury wrote:IMHO, the agencies - NHC, SPC are fine where they are. They have backups and backup plans of action just in case the worst happens. At SPC, in Norman, OK, the research division and not to mention storm chasers are located right where they should be since the most research and the most severe storms occur in that portion of the country.
SF
If nothing else, the co-location of SPC at the University of Oklahoma, with one of the premier severe storms research programs in the World, is reason enough to leave it right where it is.
It's kinda funny to go by that place and something like 8 or 9 radomes (I've forgotten how many).
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